Uncertainty w i l l always plague us. Y o u can bet on that. For a journalist, dealing with uncertainty is part of the job. Sometimes we feel uncertain because we sense that we lack enough knowledge of something we could know more about. Sometimes we feel uncertain because we cannot predict the seeming vagaries of real causal forces in the world as they influence card games, football games, volcanic eruptions, elections, human health, and

other aspects of our surroundings ranging from the microscopic to the cosmic (Kahneman & Tversky, 1982). In either case, a journalist's audience usually wants at least enough certainty in the information they are given so that they can deal with their world with some confidence (Eagly & Chaiken, 1993).