ABSTRACT

The key aim of Chapter 5 is to assess and explore three potentially workable options for peace in N-K. These are, firstly, the OSCE’s Common State plan that was formulated and presented to the conflict parties in November 1998 after they rejected the phased and package plans in 1997. This plan proposed some kind of confederative union between Azerbaijan and N-K as a compromise solution. Secondly, the Paul Goble plan that was formulated by Goble himself in 1992 but revealed to the parties in 1999. This plan proposed a territorial swap between Armenia and Azerbaijan as a compromise solution. Thirdly, a Stability Pact for the South Caucasus (SPSC) that was proposed by the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS) as a consultative document in 2000. Although the second and third plans were not offered by the OSCE it is worth analysing them as potential solutions. Chapter 5 has a specific structure. It starts with an analytic history of the three options and then it examines in detail the three workable options and analyses the position of the conflict parties that hindered peace. In addition, in this chapter we test the three hypotheses related to BATNA, uncertainty and ideas. Chapter 4 with Chapter 5 offer a comprehensive understanding of the peace dynamics and the major domestic and external obstacles and opportunities that arose during the negotiation process.