ABSTRACT

At the heart of the foresight problem is what Turner labelled the incubation period. As previously stated, Turner sees that during this period a dislocation evolves between existing beliefs and the precautions taken and the actual situation that the organisation faces: as the gap between the two increases, so does the likelihood of a crisis. This is the period where the norms are eroded and factors emerge that lead (directly or indirectly) to the subsequent events. This is the period during which the normal morphs into the abnormal and new hazards emerge in unexpected ways. This period is critical to the avoidance of failures of foresight.