ABSTRACT
Risk and uncertainty are present in public and nonprofit organizations; administrators and managers are hardly ever able to predict with absolute certainty the outcome of a decision. One important reason for this is that the predicted outcomes will occur in the future. No one can predict the future with certainty; however, an attempt to do so must be made. Experienced administrators can make fairly accurate predictions about outcomes. When decision makers do predict future outcomes, they use probabilities as indicators of their confidence in the likelihood of the outcome.
