The base year for the alternative projections presented is 1987. This is the latest year for which any data is available, part of it extrapolations from 1986. This is for the most part pre-intifada 1 or civil disturbances which began early in December 1987 (see Appendix 3). These troubles continued through all of 1988 and resulted in an estimated reduction of economic activity of at least 20 per cent over 1987 levels. Thus, all forecasts to 1997 have to assume, at least for 1988, such a reduction. While, for one of following projections (status quo), a partial continuation of these troubles after 1988 is assumed, the other two projections are based on rapidly overcoming the effects of the intifada after 1988. Note that these projections are not identical with the projections of housing needs from Section 4.6 but deal rather with likely events under different scenarios.