ABSTRACT
If the decision to change industrialization strategies can be treated as a metaphor for the adjustment process in other areas of an economy, the transition from a highly protectionist, import substitution–based strategy to one that is less protectionist, outward oriented and export based plausibly serves as a metaphor for successful adjustment. Such a shift involves a 180-degree transformation in public policy, and one that is consistent with the standard prescriptions dispensed by advisory teams from the IMF and the World Bank. 1 Such a change in public policy would be expected to create a serious political backlash from domestic industrialists, entrepreneurs, labor unions and bureaucrats who are the most direct beneficiaries of an import substitution–based policy. In fact, there has been very little sign of such a backlash in those countries that have embarked upon such dramatic changes in their industrial policy. This is certainly prima facie evidence in support of the argument that truly successful adjustment requires the presence of a strong state.
