Markets for Civil Aircraft

Civil aviation is, to most aircraft manufacturers and states alike, an indivisible part of the larger concept of aerospace which is unavoidably influenced by defence considerations. ¹ However, it does establish a distinct presence in so far as markets are concerned. Unlike the bulk of the industry whose production activity is tied to wave-cycles of military procurement, those aircraft enterprises pandering to civil aviation respond to conventional business cycles. While fluctuating in response to short-term rises and falls in economic well-being, markets for civil aircraft have followed a generally upward trend since World War II. Revenue-passenger miles for 'Free World' airlines increased, for example, from 75 billion in 1960 to 162 billion in 1965, 341 billion in 1970, and 501 billion in 1975. Correspondingly, cargo traffic witnessed a surge from 2,590 billion revenue-ton miles in 1960, through 5,874 and 11,105 billions in 1965 and 1970, to arrive at 16,553 billion in 1975. From the mid-1970s, however, the growth in demand for civil aircraft underwent a sharp downturn, partly in response to recession in AICs and debt-problems in NICs. ² It was only in 1983-4 that orders for commercial aircraft began to significantly rise once more. Yet, the remainder of the 1980s offers lucrative possibilities for aircraft manufacturers capable of meeting the demands of the market, for, not only is the crucial North American airline sector picking up again, but many of the world's airlines are considering replacing second-generation jet transports with new-model airliners.