ABSTRACT
Over the course of writing this thesis I became increasingly interested in major trends that may change America and the world over the next two decades. Paul Kennedy’s book, The Rise and Decline of Great Powers, spoke to a generation of American scholars who saw their country in the throes of a steady, if not precipitous, decline. Though the book did not begin the declinist debate, it soon took center stage as the focal point of the declinist argument. Not since Henry Luce’s “The American Century” has a tome generated such discussion among both policymakers and policy laymen. Both books are about hegemony— that elusive trait of some great nations who achieve a temporary dominance in the international arena. According to the hegemonic stability argument, such a dominance is needed to facilitate a smooth functioning international financial system, which allows for global growth and prosperity. Only such a dominant state can supply the necessary international public goods to dampen the self-seeking behavior of other states. The lack of such an international system leader inevitably leads to the breakdown of the liberal order, and the reemergence of a Hobbesian world of all against all. For Charles Kindleberger, Britain in the nineteenth century and the United States in the twentieth have filled that role. Thus, the putative decline of American hegemony is not just a matter of concern for Americans, but for all those who have benefited from nearly fifty years of almost uninterrupted economic growth and prosperity.
