ABSTRACT
Drawing an HRD roadmap for 20 to 30 years cannot rely on methods of manpower forecasts or educational returns and market signalling which are valid for the short and medium term. Given the pace of technology and the rapidly changing sector mix in the economy, and global competition, these methods may not even be valid for the medium term. The policy modelling of a 25 years roadmap with base year 2005, can only be drawn by making judgmental use of the past experience of selected countries that are known to have performed better in HRD, and whose realised structure of the education sector can be projected backwards so as to apply to Ethiopia. If the predicted paths of the select group of countries are followed along with associated institutions and policies, it is most likely that similar successful performances would occur in Ethiopia.
