ABSTRACT
The tourism industry is by nature a dynamic one, but recent years have witnessed turbulent and chaotic change from dramatic demographic shifts, climate change, technological revolutions, two major terrorist incidents and a global economic crisis, all of which have momentous implications for tourist trade. Yet tourism remains one of the most valuable economic sectors in the world and the European Travel Commission (2012) indicates that even with a backdrop of on-going government austerity limiting and slowing economic growth, tourism demand in Europe has not signifi cantly dropped. Holidays remain an important aspect of annual expenditure – an emotional and protected purchase. Thus, tourism marketers face unique opportunities in a global context that is stifl ing other industries. But with opportunities come considerable challenges. This environment of unprecedented worldwide fl ux and uncertainty makes for extremely diffi cult and risky business decision making. Analyzing future trends or ‘futurecasting’ in the tourism sector has become a critical success factor for marketing managers.
