In sport, significant resources are dedicated to the development of large groups of athletes in the hope of producing elite performers. It has been estimated that the expenditure required to achieve an Olympic gold medal is about A$37 million and A$8 million per medal (Hogan & Norton, 2000). However, many identified athletes fail to reach their potential, which raises questions regarding the most effective and efficient use of resources to ensure optimal talent development, retention and ultimately successful athletic performance. If it were possible to minimize type II errors (e.g., those athletes who are already identified by the governing body and in the talent pathway but who do not successfully transition to senior level), this would enable sporting bodies and agencies to focus expenditure on developing a smaller number of athletes and offer more focused coaching and resources in their quest for elite performance.