ABSTRACT
Throughout the world, pay-as-you go pension systems are coming under increasing demographic pressure. In a pension insurance system with predominantly contribution-funded benefits a relentlessly growing number of pensioners among the general population demands either rising contribution rates and / or marked benefit restrictions. In Germany, the looming prospect of contribution rates increasing from a current 19.5% to more than 24% by 2030 in statutory pension insurance alone was no longer considered ‘sustainable’ (for data of the past years see Appendix, Table 1). It was mainly for this reason that most of the proposals submitted by the ‘Sustainability Commission’ 1 were implemented under the ‘Nachhaltigkeitsgesetz 2004’ (2004 Sustainability Act). In particular, these include the ‘sustainability factor’ that indexes annual pension adjustments to the development of the pensioner/workforce ratio, as well as the ‘sustainability reserve’, previously referred to as fluctuation reserve (cf. Appendix, last two columns in Table 5), that is to be substantially increased (again) in the future. Model calculations on the development of necessary contribution rates to the pension insurance of workers and employees up to 2030 (in %)
Year
Model calculation of 1989, West Germany only
Model calculation of 1997 while drafting the 1999 Pension Reform Act (RRG)
Model calculation of 2001 while drafting the 2001 Altersvermögensgesetz (Retirement Assets Act) (AvmG)
Model calculation of 2003 while drafting the 2003 Pension Insurance Sustainability Act (RVNG)
Without RRG ’92
with RRG ’92
without RRG ’99
with RRG ’99
without AVmG
With AVmG
without RVNG
with RVNG
2000
22.0
20.3
20.6
19.7
19.3
19.3
19.3
19.3
2010
24.5
21.4
21.3
19.1
19.5
18.5
19.8
18.6
2020
28.1
22.8
22.8
20.0
20.6
19.6
21.6
20.0
2030
36.4
26.9
25.5
22.4
23.6
22.0
24.3
22.0
Sources:1989: Stellungnahme des Sozialbeirats zum Rentenreformgesetz 1992 vom April 1989 (April 1989 Comment of the Social Advisory Council on the 1992 Pension Reform Act), Bundestagsdrucksache 11/4334. 1997: Gesetzentwurf zum Rentenreformgesetz 1999 (Pension Reform Bill), Bundestagsdrucksache 13/8011. 2001: Bericht des Haushaltsausschusses (Budget Committee Report), Bundestagsdrucksache 14/5147 (without demographic factor). 2003: Gesetzentwurf zum RV-Nachhaltigkeitsgesetz (Pension Insurance Sustainability Act), Bundestagsdrucksache 15/2149.