ABSTRACT
PETER KELLNER: What I essentially want to do is to pose six questions, and give to each one my own tentative answer (and I stress the word tentative); my answers are followed by those of Nick Moon and Simon Atkinson. Question 1: Is there still a problem with opinion polls? PETER KELLNER: My hypothesis is 'Yes'. Labour's final margin of victory was 9.3 per cent. The smallest gaps reported by the regular polling companies were 11 per cent in ICM's final poll for the Guardian and also a MaRl poll for The Economist conducted on the Monday and Tuesday before the election. The MaRl poll for The Times overstated Labour's lead by six points, Gallup's final Daily Telegraph poll overstated the gap by eight points.
