Soviet Arms Buildup or US Arms Decline? Real Weapons Procurement Growth in the Soviet Union and the United States, 1950-1980

Estimates of real Soviet weapons growth calculated by the CIA do not support the hypothesis that the Soviet Union has carried out a massive arms buildup during the past two decades. According to CIA statistics, real weapons output crawled ahead at 2 percent per annum in the period 1960-80 and ceased growing altogether in the period 1976-80. Annual Soviet weapons outlays did surpass those of the United States after 1971, and cumulative outlays did exceed US expenditures in the period 1970-80, but the CIA's statistics indicate that this unfavorable disparity was caused by the decline in US arms procurement that followed the Vietnam war, not by the intensification of Soviet procurement activities.