ABSTRACT
The analyses presented in the preceding pages constitute a clear warning that the United States has no reason to believe and rely upon an assumption that it will maintain current levels of production of domestic oil and gas throughout this century and beyond. To do so, we have been told, will require very large increases in finding rates over the next 15 years for both oil and gas--a likelihood that is exceedingly remote given the industry's performance over many years when it had every incentive to make every effort to find more petroleum. The energy spectre haunting the United States is very much with us: The probability of having to increase imports to maintain U.S. consumption of oil and gas is changing to a near-certainty. This is an exceedingly important observation; no other interpretation is possible from the evidence presented. To believe otherwise, one would have to argue for the following propositions.
