ABSTRACT

First, I would like to address the question of whether agricultural growth will prove to be a severe constraint on China's modernization program. In this connection, the critical issue is whether over the next decade agricultural production will grow faster or slower than the increase in demand for food. If demand grows relatively fast, even a healthy 4 percent growth rate in agricultural production might create difficulties. On the other hand, if demand increases more slowly than it has in the past, a 4 percent growth rate might be more than adequate.