ABSTRACT
The transcendental changes taking place in higher education over the last decades have created a level of volatility previously unknown in the sector and have, as a consequence, focused attention on anticipating the future. This attention is not directed at trying to predict the future – which would be near impossible – but rather to consider the magnitude and direction of change and to answer questions about how we might plan for it (Universities UK, 2012; Ernst & Young, 2012; CHEPS, 2004; OECD, 2008, 2009a). Studies that contemplate the future of higher education involve a range of techniques and tools including interviews, environmental scanning, Delphi methods, simulation, scenario planning and trend analysis (Dator, 2001). While methodologies adopted in these studies are diverse, there is a significantly similar set of observations emerging. Futures research and foresight studies indicate that higher education in 5, 10 or 20 years’ time will look very different: the organization of the modern university and its business models will be transformed; the infrastructure and facilities of higher institutions will also take varying forms as technology shapes new ways of learning; academic work will be recast; and the way students study and engage with their institutions will also change (Association of American Colleges & Universities, 2002; Barber et al., 2013; Universiti Sains Malaysia, 2007; Munck & McConnell, 2010). In order to consider what the future might look like, an understanding of the complexity of this current context is required, as well as insights into how our current assumptions and perspectives influence how we perceive the future (Gidely, 2012).
