Iran

No nuclear proliferation controversy has consumed more international attention, diplomatic energy, and negotiating patience than Iran’s. This ongoing saga reflects the vexing nature of Iran’s multi-faceted challenge to the nonproliferation regime. At issue is whether the Islamic Republic can be coaxed by the international community back into compliance with its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) in a manner that balances each side’s key security interests, namely, the Iranian regime’s ability to construct a nuclear weapon should it be imperiled, and theWest’s ability to detect that construction early enough to thwart it, by use of force if necessary. In any event, serious consideration will need to be given to shoring up the nuclear nonproliferation regime in the wake of what may be called the Iranian proliferation model, for it appears that the current negotiating path will still leave Iran very close to the nuclear-weapon threshold. Other nuclear aspirants are likely to take note and potentially emulate Iran’s behavior. By itself, an Iranian breakout from the NPT could lead to the unraveling of the nuclear nonproliferation regime. If other countries in volatile regions similarly build right up to the nuclear weapon threshold, collapse of the regime could come rapidly in the form of proliferation cascades. As this chapter details, Iran’s nuclear behavior has challenged the spirit and letter of the

NPT, the treaty review process, the authority of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the nuclear export control regime. In discussing these challenges, the chapter addresses six themes: deception (including Iran’s secret construction of sensitive nuclear facilities), denial (Tehran’s refusal to admit to illicit nuclear activity, save when confronted with incontrovertible evidence to the contrary), defiance (such that in response to international calls for restraint and warnings, Iran accelerated its nuclear program), disruption (of the NPT review conference process to divert attention from its noncompliance), domestic politics (whereby the nuclear issue had become a political football among competing factions in Tehran), and diplomacy (the efforts since 2002 to negotiate a peaceful resolution of the Iranian nuclear controversy).