ABSTRACT
Increased access to energy has undoubtedly played a vital role in human development and prosperity over the past 150 years. Yet, the global energy supply is largely based on the combustion of fossil fuels, which are the single largest contributor to greenhouse gases (GHGs). The worldwide scientific consensus holds that a 50 percent reduction in GHGs from 1990 levels is necessary by 2050 in order to prevent dangerous interference to the global climate system (IPCC 2007). Unabated, global energy demand will continue to rise and the resulting emissions will increase from 30GTCO
EIA 2008). Excluding Japan and Korea, developing Asia is expected to contribute to over 34 percent of world energy use by 2030, with China alone accounting for 22 percent (EIA 2008). In spite of the urgent need to reduce GHG emissions, a wholesale switch away
from fossil fuels towards renewable and nuclear energy may be neither technically nor economically realistic for the foreseeable future. As the most inexpensive and most widely used fuel, coal is also the most problematic. It is the most carbonintensive fuel and is the biggest source of carbon dioxide (CO
and water pollutants. Today, coal accounts for about 20 percent of global GHG emissions. As the world’s largest coal user, China will increase consumption from three billion tons in 2010, to four billion tons in 2025. The best case scenarios from China’s LCS (Low Carbon Society) team suggest that by 2050, half of China’s energy needs will still be met by coal. The same holds true for India and for the most of developing Asia. Across Asia, consumption of fossil fuels is largely driven by imperatives for energy
security, development, and economic stability. Between 1990 and now, the percentage of imported fuel in developing Asia has increased dramatically. China, with few petroleum resources, has been actively searching for solutions to convert coal to liquid
fuel in order to lessen its dependence on imported oil needed to fuel its transportation sector (Asia Society 2009). Southeast Asian countries are also trying to become energy independent from oil and gas imports by increasing coal production. Power generation from coal combustion is perhaps the single most important
energy challenge towards realizing a low carbon, climate resilient economy (LCE) in developing Asia. Indeed it is estimated that nearly 90 percent of incremental demand for coal globally between 2010 and 2030 will come from developing Asia, and more than 60 percent of it is likely to be used for power generation. For example, China reportedly added over 90 GW of new coal-fired power plant capacity in 2006 alone. As one 500-MW coal-fired power plant may produce about 3 MTCO
too, more than 60 percent of CO 2 emissions are from coal, due to its heavy reli-
ance on coal for its commercial energy supply. Because coal-fired power plants are long-term capital investments, all new installations will likely “lock in” significant GHG emissions for many decades unless new low carbon technologies are introduced. Besides the power sector, industrial production processes such as natural gas processing, biomass conversion (e.g., biomass to liquids, black liquor processing in pulp and paper manufacturing), cement, iron and steel, and refineries are an increasingly significant source of CO
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is now recognized by energy specialists and policymakers as one of the transformative technologies that can allow future energy demands to be met by coal while dramatically lowering emissions (MIT 2007). The International Energy Agency (IEA) for example, asserts that CCS is needed to achieve stabilization of GHG concentrations in the most cost-effective manner. Based on realistic assumptions of deploying various decarbonization strategies into the world economy, the latest analysis by the IEA suggests a scenario that halves
global emissions by 2050 (Figure 7.1). Of these strategies, CCS is projected to capture annually 5.5 GTCO
cement, iron and steel, refineries) and 2.9 GTCO 2 e upstream sector (fuel transfor-
mation and gas processing) or 19 percent of global emissions by 2050. Reducing emissions without CCS is likely to be 70 percent more expensive (IEA 2009). Capture of CO
Another study estimates that up to 236GTCO 2 e can be cumulatively captured and
stored between now and 2050 (Stangeland 2007). Most CCS projects are expected to be in developing Asia where coal-fired power
plants are continuing to be built. China and India, with their sheer size and growth rate, will take the majority of the projects; however, a significant number of them will also be in Southeast Asia. Using the IEA reference scenario, which estimates a capacity of capturing 50GTCO
aims to address how CCS can be useful in realizing climate smart development in Asia with a focus on China.
