Intelligence, Uncertainty, Interpretations and Prediction Failure

“‘A hidden limitation of intelligence is its inability to transform a mystery into secret,’ wrote Lord Butler in his report into the intelligence on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. The enemy’s order of battle may not be known, but it is knowable. The enemy’s intentions may not be known, but they are knowable. But mysteries are essentially unknowable.” Henry Porter, The Guardian, 14 May 2006.