World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030 : An FAO Study

Name: World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030:An FAO Study
ISBN: 9781315083858

doi:10.4324/9781315083858

Book

ABSTRACT

This report is FAO's latest assessment of the long-term outlook for the world's food supplies, nutrition and agriculture. It presents the projections and the main messages. The projections cover supply and demand for the major agricultural commodities and sectors, including fisheries and forestry. This analysis forms the basis for a more detailed examination of other factors, such as nutrition and undernourishment, and the implications for international trade. The report also investigates the implications of future supply and demand for the natural resource base and discusses how technology can contribute to more sustainable development. One of the report's main findings is that, if no corrective action is taken, the target set by the World Food Summit in 1996 (that of halving the number of undernourished people by 2015) is not going to be met. Nothing short of a massive effort at improving the overall development performance will free the developing world of its most pressing food insecurity problems. The progress made towards this target depends on many factors, not least of which are political will and the mobilization of additional resources. Past experience underlines the crucial role of agriculture in the development process, particularly where the majority of the population still depends on this sector for employment and income.

Over 1 100 species of fishes, molluscs and crustaceans directly contribute to production of the world's major fisheries. There are many additional species contributing to smaller-scale fisheries. In aquaculture, although the majority of production comes from a few species, there are over 300 species, which do contribute. Biodiversity as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity -namely, the variability within species, among species, and of ecosystems, and the ecological complexes of which they are part -is a basic element

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Box 7.2 The use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in aquaculture

Traditional animal breeding, chromosome-set manipulation and hybridization have already made significant contributions to aquaculture production. Their contribution is expected to increase as aquatic species become more domesticated and as breeding and genetic technology continue to improve. A relatively new form of genetic modification involves moving genes between species, thus producing "transgenics". Experimental and pilot projects on transgenic organisms have demonstrated that commercially

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Box 7.3 An aquaculture scenario for Africa

Africa's per capita fish consumption is relatively low (6.8 kg in 1999) and there is therefore ample scope for increases in per capita fish demand. There are however several reasons to expect at best a stagnation from now until 2015. Indeed it is not clear at present how per capita fish supply in Africa could be maintained even at its present low level. Assuming that exports and imports remain at the levels of 1999, fish supply would have to expand by

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Box 7.5 International agreements

The Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (CCRF) was developed to address the management of all aspects of capture fisheries and aquaculture, fish processing and trade, including environmental issues and fishing on the high seas. The 1993 FAO Compliance Agreement (the Agreement to Promote Compliance with International Conservation and Management Measures by Fishing Vessels on the High Seas), which addresses fishing on the high seas, is an integral part of the CCRF.

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Box 7.6 Resource sharing

The sustainable harvest of natural resources in high demand is generally possible only if those resources are subject to explicit and well-defined property rights or rigorous administrative processes to regulate and enforce harvest levels. By contrast, wild fish stocks are often characterized by weak property rights, inadequate manage ment regulations and ineffective enforcement. This situation has made it possible to exploit capture fish stocks beyond sustainable levels. In some instances, particularly for slow-growing demersal species, stocks have been

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Agriculture in poverty alleviation and economic development

8.1 Introduction

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Box 8.1 The problems with international poverty data

A discussion on the quality of poverty statistics is beyond the scope of this chapter. Serious doubts do however exist as to the significance of the widely used global data on poverty (namely the World Bank's US$1 a day poverty line) that cannot be ignored. A few major objections are reported here, to warn the reader about impor tant caveats that should be borne in mind concerning the global numbers in this section. For a fuller discussion of the shortcomings behind the international poverty lines the interested reader is referred to Deaton (2001) and

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CHAPTER Agricultural trade, trade policies and the global food system

9.1 Introduction

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2 Long-term trends in the pattern

9.2.1 From agricultural exports to manufactures exports

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3 The trade policy environment

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Box 9.1 The SPS and TBT Agreements

The two pillars on which the multilateral rules for food safety are built are the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures Agreement and the Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Agreement. The SPS Agreement rests on two premises: that basing national standards on international norms would reduce conflicts and lower transaction costs; and that requiring scientific justification for standards that deviated from these international norms would make it more difficult for countries to shelter domestic industries behind unnecessarily restrictive health and

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Box 9.2 Overprotection of intellectual property can present a threat to trade 6 Summary and conclusions

The basic idea behind the Agreement on Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) is to avoid trade conflicts that can arise when countries rely on different instruments for the protection of intellectual prop erty rights (IPR). To accomplish this goal, the TRIPS Agreement provides common guidelines for national legis lators to design domestic rules and regulations for the protection of IPR, which are largely comparable and thus compatible with the legislation of trading partners.

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Globalization in food and agriculture

10.1 Globalization as an ongoing process

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2 The main features

10.2.1 Freer trade and outward-oriented policies

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Box 10.2 The global coffee chain: changing market structures and power

The 1990s saw a number of major changes in the structure of the international coffee market. The main changes include a growing market concentration of trading and roasting companies; a growing product differ entiation in high- and low-quality brands; and a redistribution of the value added along the marketing and processing chain. The general deregulation of the international coffee market that followed the

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Box 10.3 Formalizing the linkages in agriculture: the importance of contract farming

An extensive study by FAO (FAO, 2001 i) brings together numerous examples from many developing countries that confirm the generally positive influence of TNCs on the agriculture of these countries. But the FAO study also shows that policies play an important role in promoting the benefits that TNCs or the local processors can provide for a country's agriculture. Most important, it shows that the underlying contracts between farmers and the company are crucial for success or failure. Numerous examples demonstrate how well-managed contract

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Box 10.4 Multimodal transport offers new opportunities for developing countries

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Box 10.5 The benefits and limits of economic agglomeration

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Box 10.6 Why and when is two-way trade in agriculture important for developing countries?

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sarily as a result of limits in dom estic factor endogenously. T he country with higher growth endow m ents or as a result of trade barriers in produces m ore product variety, which in turn m arkets abroad (see C hapter 9), but simply because generates its own export markets. the ex p o rt m arkets they pro duced for exhibited These microeconomic effects play a role in the low and declining dem and elasticities, while their growth process and interact with macroeconomic own im port dem and rem ained elastic.20 This policies, notably with the exchange rate. For created the so-called “elasticity pessim ism ” and exam ple, there is evidence from a com parison the economic rationale for the im port-substituting betw een the Republic of K orea and Taiwan industrialization (ISI) strategies pursued by m any Province of China that the latter was able to developing countries in the 1950s and 1960s (see generate m ore product variety than the Republic Section 10.2.1 above). of Korea and rely less on a continuous competitive Krugm an (1986) showed how a country could devaluation to gain a m arket share (Oliveira overcome the elasticity constraint by em barking on Martins, 1992 and Feenstra, Yang and Hamilton, intra-industry trade (IIT) or two-way trade (TWT) 1999). More recent work has also shown a positive in differentiated products. T he principle is as and significant impact of product variety on rela follows: if consum ers have a certain taste for tive export intensity and growth (Funke and variety, each new differentiated product creates a Ruhwedel, 2001). niche and the corresponding dem and. If the In practice, however, TW T in food and agricul num ber of products produced in a given country is ture was largely limited to trade within developed related to the size of the economy, then the coun countries. In developing countries, trade patterns tries with the fastest growth also tend to produce in food and agriculture rem ained biased towards a m ore products. Contrary to the traditional view, traditional (inter-industry) trade specialization, this mechanism does not need a price (exchange which broadly reflected two m ajor factors. First, a rate) or dem and adjustm ent to equilibrate the great num ber of developing countries experienced trad e balance. Instead, the m echanism works low GDP growth rates and failed to attain the GDP Box 10.7 How has two-way trade been quantified?

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levels required to stimulate a greater diversification of dem and and eventually rising IIT. Second, 1970. T he level is higher in the N ear East/North growing TW T goes hand in hand with the devel Africa and South Asia but there too IIT in food and agriculture stagnated. opm ent of an internationally com petitive food processing industry, a process for which most A closer inspection of country-specific inform a developing countries faced m ajor constraints. Food tion suggests that the level of TW T in agriculture processing industries are well established in the increases rapidly when trade barriers are reduced industrialized countries. and even m ore so when countries integrate their But indicators for trade diversification and economy into a com mon economic m arket (Figure specialization (Table 10.3) also show that the 10.6). Such a change is accom panied not only by difference in the levels of TW T between developed the increasing am ount of IIT, i.e. by the volume of and developing countries was not always as exports and im ports of similar products, but also pronounced as in the 1990s. T hrou ghout the 1960s by a rapid increase in the num ber of products and 1970s, IIT in agriculture has been low when traded. For countries that are firmly integrated com pared to m anufactures, in developed and into a com mon m arket (the N etherlands, Belgium), developing countries alike. However, while TW T TW T in food and agriculture has reached levels rem ained at low levels in developing countries, that are com parable to those attained in m anufac m any developed countries recorded a rapid tures. Country-specific data also reveal that a rising growth in TW T trade over the 1980s and 1990s. TW T is often associated with a growing trade For the United States and the EU, for instance, the surplus in food and agriculture and vice versa. This level of TW T in agriculture increased rapidly suggests that the ability to generate a trade surplus since the early 1970s, while the TW T coefficients in food and agriculture does not so m uch depend rem ained largely unchanged throughout the devel on the ability of a country to produce a certain oping world. In sub-Saharan Africa, TW T accounts am ount of raw m aterial as on the country’s capacity for merely 16 percent of total agricultural trade to produce differentiated products and to cater for and this share has rem ained unchanged since specific markets, including m arket niches.

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4 Concluding remarks This raises the question as to what factors deter mine success or failure, integration or marginaliza Globalization -the growing integration of economies tion. Why have some countries been able to take and societies around the world -is a com plex advantage of the great developm ent potential that process that affects the w orld’s food and agricul globalization offers while others have failed to do so? tural economy in num erous ways. Cheaper and Some of the correlates of success or failure have faster transportation, easier com m unication and been identified in this chapter. To begin with, the developm ent of the Intern et are im portant openness to trade and capital flows, and the ability drivers. Also im portant are a growing num ber of to adopt and to adapt technological innovations are international agreem ents that have codified and undoubtedly am ong the im portant factors for liberalized the flow of goods and capital. These success. Also geographic location and endow m ent factors have resulted in a rapid expansion of trade with infrastructure can play a crucial role in deter and FDI but also in the rise and growing influence m ining w hether a country thrives or falls further of transnational companies. T he impacts of these behind in an increasingly globalized economic new factors have been very positive overall, even environm ent. But probably most im portant are the though the benefits are distributed unevenly. For domestic incentive system and the com panion poli exam ple, globalization has helped to fight poverty cies that facilitate the integration process. and undernourishm ent in China, Viet Nam and A num ber of exam ples have been presented to Thailand, but has done little so far to integrate the docum ent success and failure in the process of poorest in sub-Saharan Africa, to im prove their globalization. No claim is being m ade that these food security, or to enable the region’s farm ers to examples are representative or com prehensive. make significant inroads into m arkets abroad. Nonetheless, the exam ples suggest that a num ber

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of com m on features are associated with success or of export orientation and in term s of free m arket failure in the process of global integration. plus governm ent control) seems to work. It has First, while openness to trade and investm ent allowed policy-makers to gather experience as to flows is an im portant contributor to a successful what system works and what does not, as to what global integration process, openness alone is not a farm ers can do best and what not. Two-track g uarantor for success. In many cases, openness has systems have also proved useful in opening up to em erged gradually alongside overall economic and international com petition without facing the costs agricultural developm ent. At the same time, no of massive and rapid adjustm ents for a whole country has recorded high growth in the long term economy. Probably the most prom inent exam ples on the back of infant-industry protection and for successful two-track systems are C hina’s special im port substitution policies. Nowhere have insula economic zones and M auritius’ EPZ. T here are tion and protection spurred on agricultural growth various channels through which these two-track and overall developm ent in a sustainable m anner. systems facilitate transition towards freer environ Second, successful globalizers are masters in ments. They allow, for exam ple, a country to m anaging adjustm ent. They succeed in rational provide foreign investors with special conditions izing excess capacities and create exit possibilities that may be difficult to guarantee for the whole for farm ers and new em ploym ent opportunities at economy. They also help domestic companies to minimal cost. T he creation of township and village prepare for growing com petition from abroad and enterprises in China, the p ru n in g of excess allow policy-makers to adjust the domestic fram e capacity in Viet N am ’s coffee sector and credit work of com petition policies to an environm ent of restrictions imposed on unproductive chaebols in freer trade and capital flows. the Republic of Korea have been m entioned. Globalization has generated growth in FDI that G radual adjustm ent is particularly im portant for exceeded growth in trade flows. FDI inflows can agriculture, as a large part of the hum an and finan play a catalytic role for developm ent. FDI provides cial capital of the sector is fairly immobile in the not only an im portant source of finance. More short term . M anaged transition provides an oppor im portant, it is a carrier of technology, skills and tunity to reallocate resources or gradually d ep re m anagem ent techniques. But, as with trade, success ciate them. Active adjustm ent m anagem ent also rests not only on the degree of openness. As im por helps to mitigate adverse impacts for the poor. tant as the quantity of inflows is the quality of FDI. While the process of structural change often High-quality FDI is characterized by low repatria creates greater opportunities for the poor in the tion levels and intensive linkages to domestic m edium term , it also means that they have to bear farmers. Experience from FDI in India’s food short- to m edium -term transitional costs that they industry, in particular, has dem onstrated its poten are ill positioned to absorb. This is particularly true tial for prom oting agriculture and overall rural of trade reforms, where the adjustm ent costs often development. TNCs provided farmers with better come upfront, while the benefits are seen only over seeds, enhanced technologies and m ore stable a longer period of time. T he policy m easures to prices and thus boosted crop yields and farm m anage adjustm ent entail an appropriate mix, incomes. T he contracts that forge these linkages are sequencing and phasing of trade reforms; they also crucial for success. But there are also examples include m easures that prepare farmers and proces where FDI largely failed to create linkages with sors for international com petition, e.g. through local farmers and even instances where TNCs have training and technical assistance. Even w here and added to the marginalization of whole farm popula w hen b o rd er protection is largely rem oved, tions. Developments in the global coffee markets farm ers can vastly benefit from m easures that illustrate this point. T here is evidence for a growing protect them from excessive price swings (e.g. concentration in trading and processing of coffee China and Viet Nam). and there is also evidence that TNCs m anaged to Successful integration is also a process of reap a growing share in the total value created in learning and experim enting and there are m eas the coffee m arketing chain. It is however less clear ures that prom ote this learning process. T he two-to what extent these developments reflect the abuse track system in China’s agriculture (both in terms of m arket power and the absence of an appropriate

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competition policy framework that can address the quate infrastructure. In general, new technologies new competition policies in a globalized m arket. are cheaper and faster and can bring the most G lobalization in agriculture has also been rem ote areas to the heart of the markets. These b ro ught about by an internationalization of include Internet-based business com m unication production technologies. T he green revolution was systems as well as m ultim odal tran sp o rtatio n the single most im portant vehicle in this process. systems. In sparsely populated regions, transaction Again, while some countries have been phenom e costs can be reduced by prom oting economic nally successful in adopting these new technologies, agglom eration. others have largely failed to do so. As with trade In summary, globalization offers a great poten and investment flows, the correlates of success are tial for farm ers and the entire food sector of devel not merely openness to innovation. N um erous oping countries. Many developing countries are studies suggest that it is m ore im portant to create successfully tapping this potential, but not all of the appropriate domestic environm ent that allows them are able to take full advantage of the new local producers to employ the new technologies opportunities. T he ability of a country to reap the gainfully. In short, adoption has to be accom panied benefits of globalization depends on factors such as by adaptation to provide success. Similarly, success openness to trade and capital flows, ability to adopt or failure in reaping the benefits of biotechnologies technological innovations, and also geographic will depend less on availability than on the capacity location or infrastructure endowm ent. T he various to adapt the new technologies to the agronom ic exam ples suggest that openness and outward-and economic environm ents that prevail in a oriented policies characterize m any successful specific location. Finally, geographic location and globalizers but per se they are not guarantors for infrastructure endow m ent play a crucial role in success. More im portant are the com panion poli successfully tapping potential w orld m arkets. cies on the domestic front that facilitate integration T here is ample evidence that the lack of infrastruc into global markets. These are policies that provide ture (not the existence of trade barriers) has been appropriate transition periods towards freer trade; the crucial im pedim ent that hindered sub-Saharan help adapt new, external technologies to the Africa’s farmers from m aking significant inroads domestic environm ent; and provide com petition into OECD markets. policy settings and design contracts that also allow But there is also evidence that globalization can small-scale agriculture to thrive within the opera offer new opportunities to leapfrog old obstacles tions of TNCs. resulting from unfavourable locations or inade

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CHAPTER Selected issues in agricultural technology

This chapter discusses selected issues in agricul tural technology. First, it continues the evaluation and because of environm ental stresses associated started in C hapter 4 (Section 4.5.2) of the room for with intensification (see Murgai, Ali and Byerlee, 2001 and C hapter 12). Moreover, in many circum further yield im provem ents. It then discusses some

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way towards bridging the gap between actual and those shown in Figure 11.3, such as China, India, attainable if som e of these factors could be Pakistan and Egypt. All this is w ithout counting the changed, e.g. if prices rose. We could then take the potential yield gains that could come from further countries with a sizeable “bridgeable” gap and see im provem ent in varieties, since the agro-ecologi their aggregate weight in world production of a cally attainable yields of the GAEZ reflect the yield particular crop. If the weight is significant, then the potential of existing varieties. world almost certainly has significant potential for Some states in India, such as the Punjab, are increasing production through yield growth, even often quoted as exam ples of areas w here wheat and on the basis of existing knowledge and technology rice yields have been slowing down or are even (varieties, farm ing practices, etc.). reaching a plateau. Fortunately, India is one of the Among the m ajor wheat producers, only the few countries for which data at subnational level EU countries (the U nited Kingdom, Denm ark, and distinguished by rainfed and irrigated area are France and Germ any) have actual yields close to, or available. Table 11.2 com pares wheat and rice even higher than, those attainable for their agro-yields by m ajor growing state with the agro-ecolog ecological endow m ents und er rainfed high-input ically attainable yields, taking into account irriga farm ing. In all o th er m ajor pro d u cers with tion. It shows that, although yield growth has predom inantly rainfed wheat production (11 coun indeed been slowing down, in most cases actual tries) the gaps between actual and attainable yields yields are still far from agro-ecologically attainable are significant. This is shown in Figure 11.3. These yields (with a few exceptions such as wheat in 11 countries account for 37 percent of world wheat Haryana). This suggests that there are still consid production. If we assum ed that half of their yield erable bridgeable yield gaps in India. gap (attainable m inus actual) were “bridgeable”, T he discussion above gives an idea of the scope their collective production could increase by some for wheat production increases through the ad o p 60 percent w ithout any increase in their area u nder tion of im proved technologies and practices to wheat -an increm ent equal to 23 percent of bridge some of the gap that separates actual yields cu rren t world output. Yield growth would also from obtainable yields. T he broad lesson of ex p e occur in the other countries accounting for the rience seems to be that if scarcities develop and rest of world production, including the m ajor prices rise, farm ers quickly respond by adopting producers with irrigated wheat not included in such technologies and increasing production, at

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least those living in an environm ent of not too diffi Perhaps m ore im portant from the standpoint of cult access to im proved technology, transport infra m eeting future dem and, ready potential for structure and supportive policies. However, in yield growth does not necessarily exist in the countries with land expansion possibilities, the countries where the additional dem and will be, quickest response comes from increasing land e.g. in the m ature green revolution areas of und er cultivation, including shifting land am ong India and other developing countries. W hen crops towards the most profitable ones. Argentina’s potential dem and is in countries with limited exam ple is instructive: mostly from land expansion, im port capacity, as is the case in m any devel it increased wheat production by 68 percent in 1996 oping countries, such potential can be expressed and maize production by 48 percent in 1997 and as effective dem and only if it can be predom i another 25 percent in 1998, following price rises in nantly m atched by local production. As noted in the immediately preceding years. Chapters 2 and 8, increases in local production C ountries use only part of the land that is suit in these countries, in addition to adding to food able for any given crop. This does not m ean that supplies, stimulate the dem and for food because land lies bare or fallow waiting to be used for they create em ploym ent and incomes and stim increasing production of that particular crop. In ulate the wider rural economy. In such circum most cases the land is also suitable for other crops stances, the existence of large exploitable yield and in practice is used for other crops (see Box gaps elsewhere (e.g. in Argentina or Ukraine) is 4.2). T he point m ade here is that the gap existing less im portant than it appears for the evaluation between yields actually achieved and those obtain of potential contributions of yield growth to able und er high-input technology packages affords m eeting future dem and. significant scope for production increases through yield grow th, given conducive socio-econom ic It follows that continued and intensified efforts conditions, incentives and policies. T he point is not are needed on the part of the agricultural research that production increases can be obtained by com m unity to raise yields (including th ro ugh expan ding cultivation into land suitable for a m aintenance and adaptive research) in the often particular crop, because such land may not be unfavourable agro-ecological and socio-economic available if it is used for other crops. environm ents of the countries where the additional Moreover, even if there probably is sufficient dem and will be. It is thought (see below) that slack in w orld agriculture to su ppo rt fu rth er biotechnology will play an im portant role here, as increases in global production, this is small consola it has the potential to be a m ore efficient instru tion to food-insecure people who depend for their m ent than conventional plant breeding for over nutrition on what they themselves produce. Such com ing constraints inherent in such environm ents people often live in semi-arid agricultural environ (semi-aridity, susceptibility to pest infestations, etc.; m ents w here the slack for increasing production see Lipton, 1999). can be very limited or non-existent. T he fact that the world as a whole may have am ple potential to produce m ore food is of little help to them. 11.2 Technologies in support of The preceding discussion may create the sustainable agriculture im pression that all is well from the standpoint of potential for further production grow th based on Various approaches have been developed in the the use of existing varieties and technologies to past few decades to minimize the environm entally increase yields. N othing is further from the truth, detrim ental effects of agricultural production. for two m ain reasons: Among the forem ost of these are integrated pest Exploitation of the yield gaps as defined in the m anagem ent (IPM), Integrated Plant N utrient preceding discussion means further spread of Systems (IPNS) and no-till/conservation agricul the conventional high external input technolo ture (NT/CA). R ather than as isolated technologies gies, which is precisely what we should be trying they should be seen as com plem entary elem ents of to mitigate if we are to avoid aggravation of the sustainable agriculture. related environm ental problems. T he conventional m odel of agricultural devel opm ent stresses increased production and intensi

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fication through progressively specialized opera outbreak of new ones. Almost all economically tions. By contrast, the approaches discussed in this significant pests are already resistant to at least one section seek to m eet the dual goals of increased chemical pesticide. productivity and reduced environm ental impact. T he goal of I PM is to avoid or reduce yield They do this through diversification and selection losses by pests while m inim izing the negative of inputs and m anagem ent practices that foster impacts of pest control. T he term IPM was origi positive ecological relationships and biological nally used to describe an approach to pest control processes within the entire agro-ecosystem. With with the prim ary aim of reducing the excessive use the help of participatory research and extension of pesticides while achieving zero pest incidence. approaches, the principles of these technologies T he concept has broadened over time. Today IPM can be developed further into location-specific can best be described as a decision-making and sustainable resource m anagem ent systems. Even action-oriented process that applies the m ost though each of these three approaches has some appropriate pest control m ethods and strategy to distinct features, many of the specific technologies each situation. To ensure the success of this used are, to various degrees, found in all of the process, the presence and density of pests and their approaches discussed in this section. predators and the degree of pest dam age are Sustainable agriculture is not a concretely systematically m onitored. No action is taken as long defined set of technologies, nor is it a simple model as the level of the pest population is expected to or package that can be widely applied or is fixed rem ain within specified limits. over time. T he lack of inform ation on agro-ecology IPM prom otes primarily biological, cultural and and the high dem and for m anagem ent skills are physical pest m anagem ent techniques, and uses m ajor barriers to the adoption of sustainable agri chemical ones only when essential. Naturally occur culture. For exam ple, m uch less is known about ring biological control is encouraged, for exam ple these organic and resource-conserving technolo through the use of alternate plant species or vari gies than about the use of external inputs in eties that resist pests, as is the adoption of land m odernized systems. m anagem ent, fertilization and irrigation practices that reduce pest problems. If pesticides are to be used, those with the lowest toxicity to hum ans and non-target organisms should be the prim ary option. Crop, forestry and livestock production systems Precise timing and application of pesticides are througho ut the world suffer losses caused by essential. Broad spectrum pesticides are used only diseases, weeds, insects, mites, nem atodes and other as a last resort when careful m onitoring indicates pests. The intensification of farming, forestry and they are needed according to pre-established guide livestock production favours pest buildup, and the lines. This broader focus, in which judicious fertil high-yielding varieties and breeds utilized are often izer use is also receiving attention (see the next m ore susceptible to pests than traditional ones. T he section), is also referred to as integrated production impact of many of these problems can be reduced and pest m anagem ent (IPPM). with the help of pesticides but at a cost, including T he Centre for Research and Inform ation on negative health and environm ental effects. Because Low External Inp ut for Sustainable Agriculture most chemical pesticides are hazardous to hum an distinguishes three stages in the developm ent of health and toxic to many non-target organisms, IPM (IPM Europe Web site, 2002). In the first stage, there are potential hazards associated with their the concept of pest population thresholds and m anufacture, distribution and application, particu targeted pests was introduced. Later, diseases and larly if pesticides are misused (GTZ, 1993). These weeds were added to address m ore com prehen hazards include exposure during handling or appli sively the many crop protection problems that cation, pesticide residues in or on foodstuffs, pollu farmers face. In the second stage, crop protection tion of the environm ent (soil, groundwater, surface was integrated with farm and natural resource waters and air) and killing of non-target organisms. m anagem ent. Indigenous knowledge and tradi Because of the disruption of natural enemies, there tional cropping practices were studied and adapted, has been a resurgence of existing pests and an while proper natural resource m anagem ent became

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im portant because of the role of biodiversity in biological control. A whole-farm approach was thus adopted and integrated crop m anagem ent prac Any agricultural crop production -extensive or tised to solve the conflicting needs of agricultural intensive, conventional or organic -removes plant production and the environm ent. nutrients from the soil. N utrient uptake varies In the third stage came the integration of the according to soil types and the intensity of produc natural and social sciences. Most I PM projects now tion. An increase in biomass production results in a develop around a dynamic extension model, the higher plant nutrient uptake. Im balance in the farm er field school (FFS), which em phasizes availability of nutrients can lead to m ining of soil farm ers’ ability to experim ent and draw conclu reserves of nutrients in short supply and to losses of sions, and enhances their ability to make decisions. plant nutrients supplied in excess. Insufficiency of T he knowledge base has been expanded for a wide one plant nutrient can limit the efficiency with range of crops both in term s of new technologies which other plant nutrients are taken up, reducing and ecological aspects. Much of this IPM knowledge crop yields. For a farm ing system to be sustainable, has still not reached the farm level and lacks site-plant n u trien ts have to be rep lenished. The specific adaptation. nutrient m ining that is occurring in m any devel E xperience shows that IPM has econom ic and oping countries is a m ajor but often hidden form of other benefits for farm ers and farm households. land degradation, m aking agricultural production However, national policy fram ew orks in m any unsustainable. developing countries have tended to strongly IPNS aim to maximize plant nutrient use effi fav our pesticide use th ro ugh subsidies th at ciency by recycling all plant nutrient sources within distorted prices. Because of this, alternative pest the farm and by using nitrogen fixation by legumes control m easures, even w here successful techni to the extent possible. This is com plem ented by the cally, are often not financially com petitive and use of external plant nutrient sources, including farm ers are reluctant to adopt them . In addition, m anufactured fertilizers, to enhance soil pro duc generally weak extension services lack the capacity tivity through a balanced use of local and external for the intensive educational program m es needed sources of plant nutrients in a way that m aintains to fam iliarize and train farm ers in the use of IPM or improves soil fertility (FAO, 1998e). At the same practices. time IPNS aim at minimizing plant nutrient losses In spite of these problem s, IPM has been intro to avoid pollution of soils and water and financial duced successfully in m any countries and for many losses to the farmer. different crops such as rice, cotton and vegetables. At the plot level, IPNS are designed to optimize In Cuba, IPM has been integrated successfully into the uptake of plant nutrients by the crop and organic farm ing. W here farm ers have had no increase the productivity of that uptake. At the farm previous access to chemical pesticides, the intro level, IPNS aim to optimize the productivity of the duction of plant protection based on IPM is the flows of nutrients passing through the farm ing preferred option to avoid financially and environ system during a crop rotation. T he decision to mentally costly overdependence on pesticides. IPM applied to rice has shown good to dramatic apply external plant nutrients is generally based on im provem ents in production, in some cases simulta financial considerations but is also conditioned by neously reducing costs. H um an capacities and availability and perceived production risks. networks developed for rice will continue to provide Advice on quantities of nutrients to be applied support for new initiatives. Combined with the may be based on empirical results from experi proven successes, they will prom ote the introduction m ents in farmers' fields, which provide inform ation of IPM in other crops or cropping systems, particu on the im pact of com bined nutrient applications, larly vegetables and cotton. Unfortunately, a quanti tim ing of n utrient supply and sources of nutrients tative evaluation of the uptake in terms of hectares on crop yields. In the absence of such detailed covered and reduced pesticide use is only available inform ation, knowledge of the quantities of n u tri for a few projects, making a global or regional esti ents rem oved by crops at the desired yield level mate of its present and future use impossible. provides a starting-point for estim ating nutrient requirem ents.

11.2.2 Integrated Plant Nutrient Systems

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Im proved plant nutrition m anagem ent will be Soil cover is needed to protect the soil from the im portant for environmentally and economically impact of rainfall, which would destroy the porosity sustainable crop production, be it conventional or of the soil surface, leading to runoff and erosion. organic. However, the rate of spread of IPNS and their implications for the use of mineral fertilizers in Crops are seeded or planted through this cover with special equipm ent or in narrow cleared strips. agricultural production cannot be predicted in isola tion. Precise m anagem ent of fertilizer use can raise Direct planting or seeding is linked with NT/CA, since any m ore general tillage would bury most efficiency by 10 to 30 percent and should therefore be included in all production systems aiming for or all of the vegetal cover. Crop sequences are sustainability, even if they do not emphasize IPNS. planned over several seasons to minimize the buildup of pests or diseases and to optimize plant nutrient use by synergy am ong different crop types and by alternating shallow-rooting crops with deep-rooting ones. W hen the same crop or cover By far the largest extent of agricultural land continues to be ploughed, harrow ed or hoed crops are repeated on the same piece of land each before every crop. T hese conventional tillage year, NT/CA is an im perfect and incom plete practices aim to destroy weeds and loosen the system, because diseases, weeds and pests tend to topsoil to facilitate w ater infiltration and crop increase and profits tend to decrease (Derpsch, establishm ent. This recurring disturbance of the 2000). T he cropland is being used continuously and no burning of residues is allowed. topsoil buries any soil cover and may destabilize the soil structure so that rainfall can cause soil Besides protecting the soil against erosion and dispersion, sealing and crusting of the surface. An water loss by runoff or evaporation, the soil cover also inhibits the germ ination of many weed seeds, additional problem of conventional tillage is that minimizing weed com petition with the crop. After it often results in com pacted soils, which nega tively affect productivity. the first couple of years of NT/CA on a field, the This negative impact of soil tillage on farm stock of viable weed seeds near the soil surface productivity and sustainability, as well as on environ usually declines, often to the point where weed mental processes, has been increasingly recognized. incidence becomes minor, with rem nant popula tions at scattered spots in the field. In the first few In response to the problem, no-till/conservation agri culture (NT/CA) has been developed. NT/CA main years, however, herbicides may still need to be applied. Systems without continuous soil cover or tains and improves crop yields and resilience against crop rotation may not even reduce the incidence of drought and other hazards, while at the same time weed in the long term (e.g. wheat m onoculture in protecting and stimulating the biological functioning the United States). of the soil. Various terms are used for variants of After a num ber of years, yields have often risen NT/CA in different countries, depending on the to some 20 to 50 percent higher than what they perceived importance of one or another aspect of the were before un d er conventional procedures. T he approach: zero tillage; minimum or low tillage; yields also become less variable from year to year. plantio directo na palha (direct planting in straw); Labour costs can be significantly lower, and labour siembra directo permanente (perm anent direct seeding); and conservation tillage. dem and is distributed m uch m ore evenly over the year. In put costs are lower as well, particularly for T he essential features of NT/CA are: minimal soil disturbance restricted to planting and drilling; m achinery once the initial investments have been m aintenance of a perm anent cover of live or dead made. In mechanized farm ing less fuel is needed and smaller tractors can be used or fewer draft vegetal material on the soil surface; direct sowing; animals are needed for a given area; in areas crop rotation com bining different plant families (e.g. cereals and legum es); adequate biomass without these power sources, the heavy m anual work preparatory to crop establishment is drasti generation; and continuous cropland use. In some cally reduced (see also Section 4.6.2). countries the above-m entioned systems m ight lack There are several reasons, however, for the some essential features of NT/CA and will therefore continued dominance of conventional tillage-based not have the same beneficial effects. agriculture. T here is a natural reluctance to change

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approaches that have been working in past years or transition years, there are extra costs for tools and for decades. Conventional wisdom on the benefits of equipm ent. H igher weed incidence may increase ploughing and a lack of knowledge on the resulting herbicide costs initially and the yields and resilience dam age to the soil system tend to maintain plough-against drought will improve only gradually. based agriculture. Also, the transition to NT/CA is A m ore im portant im pedim ent to the successful not free of cost, nor particularly simple. During the introduction of NT/CA is probably the required Box 11.1 No-till development support strategy: the Brazil experience

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com plex m anagem ent skills. Any pro duction cover and adequate crop rotation, and cannot system that includes crop rotation (see also Section therefore be classified as NT/CA. In Paraguay 11.3 on organic agriculture) is m ore com plex as it about half of all the cropped land is und er calls for coherent m anagem ent over m ore than one elements of NT/CA, mainly zero tillage. T he area or two crop seasons. Farmers will need to und er increased from about 20 000 to almost 800 000 ha stand the new system and the reasons for the various between 1992 and 1999 because the governm ent procedures, and adapt them to their specific needs assisted by sharing part of the initial costs of and conditions to balance crop rotation with conversion. m arket requirements. In mixed agriculture-live-T he spread of NT/CA approaches in the next stock systems, practices such as stall-feeding or three decades is expected to be considerable but, in controlled grazing will need to replace free grazing addition to the constraints m entioned above, on harvested fields. expansion will for several reasons vary widely NT/CA farm ers appear to be keen to learn and across countries. Investm ent is needed to restore em brace new developm ents (D erpsch, 2000). nutrient-depleted soils before crop residues can be Being acquainted with m ore holistic m anagem ent produced in adequate am ounts to satisfy the needs approaches to farming, many NT/CA farm ers have of livestock and m aintain a soil cover. In arid areas intro duced aspects of organic agriculture or without irrigation, the am ounts of crop residues converted entirely to organic agriculture w here a generally will not be sufficient for effective NT/CA m arket for organic products exists. On the other systems. In some countries, established extension hand, some organic farm ers have successfully services or staff have been actively discouraging adopted NT farming. Moreover, NT/CA farm ers farm ers from converting to NT/CA, while in others have also been faster adopters of IPM approaches the scientific or extension institutes are not able to than conventional ones (Pieri et al., 2002). initiate the onfarm experim ents needed to adapt T he initial introduction of NT/CA in a new and validate NT/CA systems locally. Even under area, its adaptation to the environm ental, social favourable circumstances, it can take years before and economic conditions and its validation and the new production system is widely known, dem onstration in representative farms depend understood and appreciated. A further ten years partly on the people involved. They require the m ight be needed for its practical application over a determ ined and sustained efforts of com petent, large part of the country or a m ajor farm ing system innovative governm ental or non-governm ental area (for exam ple, the South Asian rice-wheat area, organizations and an active learning attitude of or the Brazilian cerrados). some of the most change-m inded farm ers and farm ers’ groups as well as the extension staff Once NT/CA has been shown to work well on several 11.3 Organic agriculture farms in a given environm ent, the practices tend to spread spontaneously over large areas. Farmers need professional contacts with each other and Organic agriculture is a production m anagem ent system that aims to prom ote and enhance local m anufacturers need to be in a position to ecosystem health, including biological cycles and supply the necessary tools and equipm ent. During soil biological activity (Box 11.2). It is based on the initial phase many farmers will need some financial support in the form of loans or grants. minimizing the use of external inputs, and rep re Some or all elements of NT/CA have been sents a deliberate attem pt to make the best use of applied by farm ers so far on between 50 and local natural resources. Methods are used to m ini mize pollution of air, soil and water (FAO/WHO, 60 million ha worldwide. Almost half of this is in 1999), although they cannot ensure that products the U nited States, where the area und er zero tillage tripled over the last decade to about 23 million ha are completely free of residues, because of general environm ental pollution. O rganic agriculture (USDA, 200le), responding to governm ent conser com prises a range of land, crop and anim al vation requirem ents and to reduce fuel costs. But a m anagem ent procedures. Unlike food labelled as considerable share of this is under m onoculture “environm entally friendly”, “n atu ral” or “free-and misses two essential features, namely full soil range”, organic agriculture is circumscribed by a

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set of rules and limits, usually enforced by inspec make food production and processing m ethods tion and certification mechanisms. O ther term s respectful of the environm ent. used, depending on the language, are “biological” Organic agriculture, broadly defined, is not or “ecological”. “Biodynam ic” refers to com m odi limited to certified organic farms and products ties that are produced according to organic and only. It also includes non-certified ones, as long as other additional requirem ents. they fully m eet the requirem ents of organic agri Synthetic pesticides, mineral fertilizers, synthetic culture. This is the case for m any non-certified preservatives, pharm aceuticals, GMOs, sewage organic agricultural systems in both developing sludge and irradiation are prohibited in all organic and industrial countries w here pro d u ce is standards. Plant n u trie n t or pesticide inputs consum ed locally or sold directly on the farm or derived directly from natural sources are generally without labels. T he extent of these systems is diffi allowed, as is a m inim um of pretreatm ent before cult to estimate since they operate outside the certi use (water extraction, grinding, etc.). Industrially fication and m arket systems (El-Hage Scialabba and produced pesticides, for exam ple, may not be H attam , 2002). applied in organic agriculture, but an extract of Organic practices that encourage soil biological neem (Azadirachta indica) leaves, which have activity and nutrient cycling include: m anipulation biocidal properties, is currently allowed. of crop rotations and strip cropping; green Most industrial countries, but few developing m anuring and organic fertilization (animal m anure, countries, have national organic standards, regula compost, crop residues); m inim um tillage or zero tions and inspection and certification systems that tillage; and avoidance of pesticide and herbicide govern the production and sale of foods labelled as use. Research indicates that organic agriculture “organic”. At the international level, the general significantly increases the density of beneficial principles and requirem ents applying to organic invertebrates, earthw orm s, root symbionts and agriculture are defined in the Codex guidelines other m icro-organism s (fungi, bacteria) (FiBL, (FAO/WHO, 1999) adopted in 1999. T he growing 2000). Properly m anaged organic agriculture interest in organic crop, livestock and fish products reduces or eliminates water p.ollution and helps is m ainly driven by health and food quality conserve water and soil on the farm. Some coun concerns. However, organic agriculture is not a tries (e.g. France and Germ any) com pel or subsi product claim that organic food is healthier or dize farm ers to use organic techniques as a solution safer, but rath er a process claim intending to to nitrate contam ination in groundwater. Box 11.2 What is an organic production system designed to do?

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in Latin Am erican countries and has the second largest area of organically m anaged land in the Growth rates of land under organic m anagem ent are world after Australia. In both countries, however, impressive in western Europe, Latin America and most of this is grassland. Because of the large size the United States. Between 1995 and 2000, the total of organic ranches in the pam pas, the average size area of organic land tripled in western Europe and of organic farms is 3000 ha in Argentina. Some the United States. In the United States, land under 85 percent of Argentina’s organic production is certified organic agriculture has been growing by exported. 20 percent p.a. since 1989, while in western Europe In 2000, agricultural land under certified average annual growth rates have been around organic m anagem ent averaged 2.4 percent of total 26 percent since 1985 (with greatest increases since agricultural land in w estern E urope, 1.7 percent 1993). In 1999 alone, the United Kingdom experi in Australia, 0.25 percent in C anada and 0.22 enced a 125 percent growth of its organic land area. percent in the U nited States. In m ost developing However, these dramatic increases must be viewed countries, agricultural land rep orted und er certi against the small starting base levels. In some cases fied organic production is m inim al (less than they may reflect a reclassification of land rather than 0.5 percent of agricultural lands). However, some an actual switch in farming systems. traditional farms in developing countries have Policy measures were instrum ental in persuading adopted m odern organic m anagem ent to im prove small farmers to convert to organic farming by their productivity, especially in areas w here pesti providing financial compensation for any losses cides and fertilizers are inaccessible. T he extent of incurred during conversion. T he guidelines estab such non-m arket organic agriculture is difficult lished by the organic agriculture com munity in the to quantify bu t some attem pts have been m ade. 1970s were formalized by national and suprana T he G hanaian O rganic A griculture Network, for tional legislation and control systems (e.g. first in exam ple, estim ates that there are aro und 250 000 D enm ark in 1987, followed in 1992 by Australia families in South and East Africa farm ing aro und and the EU: Reg. no. 2092/91). T he role of organic 60 million ha on an organic basis. A nobah (2000) agriculture in reaching environm ental policy objec estim ates that over one-third of West African agri tives, including sustainable use of land set-aside cultural produce is produced organically. (Lam pkin and Padel, 1994), led to the adoption of A num ber of industrial countries have action agri-environm ental m easures th at encourage plans for the developm ent of organic agriculture. organic agriculture (e.g. the 1992 reform of the Targets are set for the sector’s grow th and Com m on A gricultural Policy and accom panying resources are allocated to com pensate farm ers EU Reg. no. 2078/92). d u rin g , and som etim es after, the conversion T he estimates given below are derived from a period, and to sup port research and extension in com pilation of available inform ation by the organic agriculture. For exam ple, the U nited Foundation Ecology and A griculture (SOL) in K ingdom increased the budget of the O rganic Germany. In the absence of a statistical database on Farm ing Scheme to support conversion to organic organic agriculture in FAO, this is the most agriculture by 50 percent for 2001-02 (£20 million com prehensive source available (W ilier and per year) and allocations in the U nited States for Yussefi, 2002). SOL reports a global area of land the organic sector include US$5 m illion for under certified organic agriculture of 15.8 million research in 2001. India and T hailand have estab ha of which 48.5 percent are located in Oceania lished their own organic standards to facilitate (Australia 7.7 million ha); 23.5 percent in Europe exports and to satisfy dom estic dem and. China, (with Italy having the highest area, nearly 1 million Malaysia and the Philippines are at p resen t ha); 20 percent in Latin America (with Argentina w orking towards establishing national standards. having 3 million ha); 7.4 percent in N orth America (U nited States nearly 1 million ha); 0.3 percent in Asia; and 0.1 percent in Africa. With 3 million ha, A rgentina accounts for Typically, farm ers experience some loss in yields m ore than 90 percent of the certified organic land after discarding synthetic inputs and converting

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th eir operations from conventional, intensive systems (often traditional) that do not apply soil-systems to organic production. Before restoration building practices. A study from Kenya indicates of full biological activity (e.g. growth of soil biota, that, contrary to general belief, organic agriculture im proved nitrogen fixation and establishment of in the tropics is not constrained by insufficient natural pest predators), pest suppression and organic material (to compensate for the non-use or fertility problem s are common. T he degree of yield reduced use of external inputs), but instead shows a loss varies and depends on inherent biological good perform ance (ETC/KIOF, 1998). attributes of the farm, farm er expertise, the extent As discussed in Chapter 4, average fertilizer to which synthetic inputs w ere used under consumption will rise in developing countries. The previous m anagem ent and the state of natural average figure masks, however, that for many (espe resources (FAO, 1999h). It may take years to cially small) farmers the purchase of manufactured restore the ecosystem to the point where organic fertilizers and pesticides is and will continue to be production is economically viable. constrained by their high costs relative to output Transition to organic m anagem ent is difficult prices or simply by unavailability. Organic agricul for farm ers to survive w ithout financial com pensa ture emphasizes understanding and managem ent of tion, especially in high intensive input agriculture naturally occurring production inputs (such as farm and in degraded environm ents. After the conver yard m anure, indirect plant protection and own seed sion period, organic agriculture achieves lower production) as an alternative to enhance yields. It yields than high ex tern al in put systems. will not be possible for organic agriculture to attain D epending on the previous m anagem ent level of the high yields achieved with the use of synthetic specialization, yields can be 10 to 30 percent lower inputs in high-potential areas. But organic manage in organic systems, with a few exceptions where ment offers good prospects for raising yields and yields are com parable in both systems. In the the sustainability of farming in resource-poor and m edium term , and depending on new knowledge, marginal areas, and can raise the productivity of yields im prove and the systems’ stability increases. traditional systems while relying on local resources In the longer term , perform ance of organic agri (Pretty and Hine, 2000). culture increases in parallel with im provem ents in For exam ple, India is collecting nationw ide ecosystem functions and m anagem ent skills. inform ation reg arding the experim ents being Yields do not usually fall, however, when conver carried out in organic agriculture, with a view to sion to organic agriculture starts from low-input reintroducing it as part of its traditional “rishi

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a g ricu ltu re”. In L atin A m erica, hund re d s of pro d u cts and non-food p ro d u ctio n (to feed thousands of indigenous farm ers along the Andes animals and soils). Incomes achieved over a given have tu rn ed to the organic m ovem ent to reinstate season may ap p ea r high because o f price sophisticated agricultural practices developed by prem ium s when excluding the low profits over the Incas. Individual small family vegetable plots rotational seasons. Supply constraints faced by an d groups/associations m anaging organic organic farm ers, which are expected to increase if produce for dom estic urban m arkets and small the sector expands, include the provision of inform al fairs are w idespread. Cuba adopted adequate organic inputs such as organic seeds (e.g. organic agriculture as p art of its official agricul GMO-free), natural pest enem ies and m ineral tural policy, with investm ents in research and rocks (e.g. rock phosphate). extension, to com pensate for shortages in An increased organic food supply above a external inputs. In 1999 (non-certified) organic certain level would lead to a decline in prem ium u rb a n ag ricu ltu re (in self-provision gardens, raised container beds and intensive gardens) prices. A study for Denm ark (SJFI, 1998) concludes produced 65 percent of the country’s rice, 46 percent that the prim ary agricultural sector income may of fresh vegetables, 38 percent of non-citrus fruit, not fall if fewer than 25 percent of Danish farm ers 13 percent of roots, tubers and plantains and were to adopt organic m ethods. Most countries are far below such a threshold. 6 percent of eggs (M urphy, 2000). In organic systems, external inputs such as fertilizers, herbicides and m achinery are replaced by labour, most often increasing women’s work. L abour can either be a m ajor constraint to organic On the dem and side, prom otion and m arketing conversion, or an em ploym ent provider to rural strategies of retailers and superm arkets, in partic communities. Often the introduction of organic ular of m ajor food-retailing chains, have created agriculture shifts gender distribution of labour as new m arket opportunities for organic agriculture in m en prefer to be involved with m echanized agri industrial countries. Food-retailing chains, which culture. W omen rarely own land and are also stock and prom ote organic foods as a tool to dependent on access to common property. Since improve their public image, account for a major access to credit frequently requires land as collat share of the retail markets for fresh as well as eral, women (and landless people) are largely processed organic foods. Concerns about growth-excluded from the formal credit m arket. As a stimulating substances, GM food, dioxin-contami-result, women seek m ethods that require little nated food and livestock epidemics (such as bovine external inputs. O rganic agriculture facilitates spongiform encephalopathy) have given further wom en’s participation as it does not rely on finan impetus to organic food dem and as consumers cial inputs and access to credit. increasingly question the safety of conventional T he economic perform ance of organic agricul foods. T he most recent outbreak of foot-and-m outh ture in industrial countries (mainly in Europe) is disease has added to concerns over the soundness of determ ined by financial support from govern industrial agriculture. Several governm ents have m ents, prem ium prices for produce and high responded with declarations of targets for the labour costs. An extensive analysis of European expansion of organic production. Many consumers farm economics in term s of labour use, yields, perceive organic products as safer and of higher prices, costs and support paym ents, concludes that quality than conventional ones. These perceptions, profits on organic farms are, on average, com pa rather than “science”, drive the market. rable to those on conventional farms (H ohenheim , The m arket opportunities arising from these 2000). However, only a few studies have assessed concerns have also opened possible niche markets the long-term profitability of organic agriculture. for developing country exporters. Major industrial Profitability of organic systems relates to whole-countries’ m arkets offer good prospects for farm production (total production of a variety of suppliers of organic products that are not produced species and not single crop yields) over the entire domestically (e.g. coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, sugar rotation period. This includes both m arketed cane and tropical fruit) as well as off-season pro d ucts (such as fruit and vegetables) and processed

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foods. Liberalization and privatization policies in oping countries’ organic m arkets are still very developing countries open the way for a greater limited and food is sold mainly in specialized stores role for organic entrepreneurs and producers’ in large cities. ITC (1999) estimates an annual sales organizations. Markets for value-added products growth of organic food between 10 and 40 percent such as organic commodities can help counterbal over the m edium term , depending on the market. ance falling commodity prices and withdrawal of Thus, organic food retail sales could grow from an governm ent support for agricultural inputs and average of 2 percent of total sales in 2000 to a share other services. Price prem ium s range from 10 to of 10 percent in m ajor m arkets in a few years. 50 percent over prices for non-organic products. T here is also governm ent support for organic exports. Exam ples include the organic coffee program m e of the Coffee Development Authority in Uganda; the prom otion of organic exports by T he future growth of organic agriculture will India’s Ministry of Commerce; and support by the depend m ore on supply constraints than on devel Argentinean governm ent for the export of over opm ents in dem and, at least over the m edium 80 percent of the country’s organic produce. term . T he tendency so far has been for the rate of T he size of domestic organic production is not dem and growth to outstrip the rate of growth in necessarily related to the im portance of organic available supplies. Developing countries are just markets. Australia, which has the world’s largest starting to benefit from organic m arket opportuni area of organic land, most of which is grassland, has ties but present conditions benefit prim arily large a m arket of US$170 million of organic food retails. producers and operators. Japan, on the other hand, which has only 5 000 ha T he supply and quality of organic raw material of organic lands, is the second largest world organic and rules governing organic production and m arket (US$2.5 billion of retail sales in 2000). T he processing m ight limit the extent to which devel largest markets of organic foods are in western oping countries could satisfy the dem and for European countries (Germ any being the most organic food in industrial countries. Organic food im portant m arket at present), Japan and the United trade m ight be discouraged by difficulties in States. T he UNCTAD/WTO International Trade complying with foreign standards and costly control Centre (ITC, 1999) estimated retail sales of organic systems, especially if international equivalency is not foods in the largest markets at US$20 billion in established. Access to inspection and certification, as 2000, of which US$8 billion in Europe and the well as the need to develop new m ethods of United States each, and US$2.5 billion in Japan. processing organic food, are m ajor challenges that In spite of dram atic growth rates, sales of are likely to be taken up by large and established organic agricultural products in industrial coun food companies (Kristensen and Nielsen, 1997). tries in 2000 represented less than 2 percent of M ultinational food com panies are expected to total food sales at the retail level. However, in contract for and certify organic foods. In particular, particular countries and for particular products, the growth of processed organic foods will be facili the m arket share of organic agricultural products tated by these com panies’ capacities to assemble can be appreciably larger. Organic food sales in ingredients from different parts of the world and to Germ any are 3 to 4 percent of total sales, while guide production to m eet their specific needs. At individual commodities such as organic milk p ro d the same time there are num erous opportunities for ucts have over a 10 percent m arket share, with the developing country producers and exporters to figure for organic ingredients in baby foods in the enter the markets for value-added organic products range of 80 to 90 percent. Organic coffee, which using simple technology. accounts for 0.2 percent of world coffee consum p Further long-term im petus towards adoption of tion, accounts for 5 percent of the United States environmentally friendly farming systems, including coffee m arket (Vieira, 2001). Some 100 developing organic agriculture, will stem from moves towards countries pro duce organic com m odities in decoupling agricultural su ppo rt from purely commercial quantities, most of which are exported production-oriented goals. T here will be increasing to industrial countries. W here they exist, devel em phasis on su ppo rt to ag ricu ltu re’s role in

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providing public goods. Agricultural and environ as 2005. In view of the present levels and these mental policies, including those responding to food targets, the EU, on average, might possibly have a safety concerns, will play a large role in facilitating quarter of its total agricultural land und er organic or hindering the adoption of organic agriculture. m anagem ent by 2030. Besides financial support for conversion and It is hard to make estimates on future expansion regulations to pro tect the claim of organic of area under organic m anagem ent in developing producers, public investm ent in research and countries. Expansion will depend on technological training is fundam ental for such a knowledge- and innovations and unforeseen factors that challenge m anagem ent-intensive production system. It is still agricultural developm ent as a whole, similar to the difficult for farm ers and extension services to draw developm ent of organic agriculture in Europe. on a wide selection of well-researched m ethods and H ere it took 30 years for organic agriculture to approaches. This often limits adoption to the most occupy 1 percent of agricultural land and food innovative farmers. Organic agricultural research markets, but food safety concerns resulted in its receives only a fraction of the funds going to recent spectacular and unforeseen increase. biotechnology research. In developing countries, non-m arket organic agriculture and domestic certified organic agricul ture are expected to increase in the long term . In 11.4 Agricultural biotechnology particular, areas where economic growth is lagging This section focuses on the potential, risks and (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa) and external inputs are likely benefits of agricultural biotechnology to unavailable or unaffordable, non-m arket organic 2030. T he benefits of agricultural biotechnology agriculture could contribute to achieving local food arise from its potentially large contribution to security. productivity gains and quality im provem ents. By about 2015, some organically produced trop Productivity gains encompass essentially all factors ical commodities (e.g. coffee, cocoa, cotton and tea) of agricultural production: higher returns on land should have a m oderate m arket share. T he current and livestock, labour and capital or simply lower tendency towards organic convenience food in input requirem ents per unit of outputs. This may industrial countries will increase, in particular for m ean higher crop and livestock yields, lower pesti tropical beverages, baby food and frozen vegetables. cide and fertilizer applications, less dem anding T he oilcrops trade (especially soybeans and production techniques, higher product quality, rape) is subject to m ajor changes as oilcrops are better storage and easier processing, or enhanced the focus of biotechnology developm ent. Future m ethods to m onitor the health of plants and evidence on the safety of GM oilcrops m ight either animals. Ultimately, higher productivity will result increase their production or create new markets in lower prices for food and fibre, a benefit for all (and exports) for organic oilcrops. Cases are consum ers but particularly im portant for the poor em erging where, because of the advent of GM who spend a relatively large share of their incomes crops, organic production will be constrained or no on food and fibre. longer feasible; for exam ple, organic farm ers in H igher productivity also holds the key in the C anada can no longer grow organic canola because fight against rural poverty. T he underlying m ech of GM canola contam ination in west Canada. anisms of the productivity-poverty nexus have European governments’ year 2010 targets for conversion of agricultural land to organic agriculture been discussed in C hapter 8. Biotechnology holds the prom ise of boosting productivity and thus are ambitious: some countries (the Netherlands and raising rural incomes, in m uch the same way as the Norway) aim to have 10 percent of agricultural land green revolution did in large parts of Asia during converted to organic agriculture. Germany has set a target of 20 percent. The United Kingdom Organic the 1960s to 1980s. It could kick-start a new Food and Farming Targets Bill aims to increase total virtuous cycle of productivity growth, increased output and revenues. organic area to 30 percent (and domestic organic food retails to 20 percent). Denmark and Italy each But there are also num erous risks and uncer aim at 10 percent and Sweden at 20 percent, as early tainties associated with these new technologies that have given rise to a host of concerns and questions.

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T he most im portant of these is w hether and how and seed production; (ii) marker-assisted selection developing countries can actually harness the (MAS), in which DNA segments are used to m ark potential of biotechnology to prom ote production the presence of useful genes, which can then be and the productivity of the poor. This in tu rn raises transferred to future generations through tradi other questions. W hether and to what extent are tional breeding using the m arkers to follow inheri the needs of developing countries being taken into tance; (iii) genomics, which aims to describe and account in current research efforts? How fast and decipher the location and function of all genes of to what extent have GM crops been adopted by an organism; and (iv) genetic engineering, in which developing countries? W hich crops took the lead? one or m ore genes are elim inated or transferred Are the products developed by and for developed from one organism to another without sexual countries suited to the economic and ecological crossing. A GMO, also referred to as a living m odi environm ents of developing countries and to what fied organism (LMO) or transgenic organism , extent will developing countries develop their own means any living organism that possesses a novel biotechnology applications? More specifically, will com bination of genetic m aterial obtained through “orp han” crops such as millet or bananas, which the use of m odern biotechnology.1 often play a vital role in the livelihoods of the poor, receive sufficient attention by new research? Will farm ers in developing countries be trained and T raditionally, p lan t

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Genomics. Genomics is the science of deciphering synthetic insecticides. For m ore than 50 years, the sequence structure, the variation and the func form ulations of the toxin-produ cing bacteria tion of DNA in totality. More im portant than Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) have been applied by merely discovering and describing all genes of an spraying, in the same way as conventional agricul organism is to describe the functions of the genes tural insecticides, to kill leaf-feeding insects. and the interactions between them . So-called func Studies on the safety of Bt for hum ans have not tional genomics will help to discover the function revealed any adverse effects on health. ality of all genes, their functional diversity and the In the late 1980s, scientists began to transfer the interactions between them. Functional genomics is genes that produce the insect-killing toxins in expected to accelerate genetic im provem ent, the bacteria Bacillus thuringiensis into crop plants. T he discovery of traits and to help solve intractable intention was to ensure that all cells in these GMOs problem s in crop production. produced the toxin. Although no efforts were Recent progress in the m apping of the entire m ade to increase the growth rates or yield potential rice genom e sequence, with the complete sequence of the GM crops with these innovations, farmers expected to be delivered in 2004, represents a first have welcomed Bt crops because of the prom ise of im portant step towards understanding the overall better insect control and reduced costs. However, architecture of the crop and provides valuable in the United States, the impact of Bt GMOs on inform ation for other techniques such as MAS or crop yields and the num ber of conventional insec genetic transform ation. But this would not yet ticide applications have varied widely by location include a full description of the biological functions and year. This is partly because of differences of the various DNA sequences and their interac between the intended potential impact of the GM tions, which would be a m uch m ore im portant step crops on target pests and their actual field perform towards im proved varieties. Many m ore years are ance. Some of these differences were a result of the likely to pass before all functions of all rice genes uneven distribution of the toxin within the plants will be fully understood. as they grew, some resulted from variations in target and non-target pest populations, and others Genetically modified organisms. Current trends and were the result of toxins accum ulating in plant-applications. T he first GMOs became commercially feeding insect pests, causing mortality of predators available in the mid-1990s. Since then, their im por and parasites that ate those pests. tance has grown at an astounding pace. T he Herbicide-tolerant traits. T he insertion of a herbi-num ber of GM varieties and species has increased cide-tolerant gene into a plant enables farm ers to rapidly and the area sown to GM crops has m ulti spray wide-spectrum herbicides on their fields plied (some illustrative exam ples are given in Table killing all plants but GM ones. For that reason, the 11.3). But the adoption across countries has been new GM seeds opened new m arkets for themselves very uneven, with almost the entire expansion and for herbicides. In fact, these crops contain a taking place in developed countries. Similarly, slightly m odified growth-regulating enzyme that is despite the rising variety of GM products available, im m une to the effects of the active ingredient and commercial success has been concentrated on a few allows it to be applied directly on the crops and kill varieties or traits, notably herbicide-tolerant (Ht) all plants not possessing this gene. maize and soybeans as well as Bacillus thuringiensis Virus resistance. Virus-resistant genes have been (Bt) cotton and maize. In 2001, H t soybeans introduced in tobacco, potatoes and tomatoes. The accounted for 63 percent of the area und er trans insertion of a resistance gene against potato leaf genic crops, followed by Bt maize with a share of roll virus protects the potatoes from a virus usually 19 percent (ISAAA, 2001). transm itted through aphids. For that reason, it is Insect resistant traits. “Pest-protected” varieties expected that there will be a significant decrease in were am ong the first GM crops to be developed, for the am ount of insecticide used. T he introduction of the purpose of reducing production costs for a virus resistance gene in tobacco may offer similar farm ers. Insect-resistant GMOs have been benefits prom oted both as a way of killing certain pests and Stacked traits. The so-called stacked traits embody of red ucing the application of conventional a combination of properties introduced through

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GM technologies. The most im portant applications ceutical products from transgenic animals, however, at present are combinations of herbicide tolerance seems m ore acceptable to the public. (Ht) and insect resistance (Bt). A num ber of other Highly successful research has been carried out combinations have already become commercially on GM fish, but no GM fish have entered the available, such as herbicide-resistant maize varieties m arket as yet (see C hapter 7). Most GM fish are with higher oil contents. In the future, the addition aquaculture species th at have received genes of m ore traits with specific value will be added with controlling the production of growth horm ones, combinations of stacked traits that provide insect which raises the growth rate and yield of farm ed tolerance, herbicide resistance and various quality fish. Ethical questions on the welfare and environ im provem ents such as high lysine and/or low m ental impact of these GM fish have been raised, phytate content, possibly even in conjunction with but it is also argued that GM fish share many attrib higher oil content. utes of conventionally selected alien fish species GM farm animals and fish. While there was and genotypes, both of which are proven and considerable grow th in the developm ent and accepted means of increasing production from the com m ercialization of GM crops, GM livestock aquatic environm ent (FAO, 2000f). have largely rem ained outside com m ercial food production systems. At the experim ental level, Current

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rem aining potential. GM soybeans, for instance, impossible to identify specific products that are already account for two-thirds of soybean area likely to dom inate developm ents in biotechnology worldwide and for an even larger share of devel over the next 30 years. It is, however, easier to oped countries’ soybean area. An expansion of GM identify the overall param eters that are likely to soybeans m ust therefore come from an overall affect future trends. growth in soybean area rather than from a shift out T he overall direction of research and develop of non-GM soybean production. Growth may also m ent is likely to be determ ined by economic incen be curbed because of food safety and environ tives. Developments in prices of production factors m ental concerns that have received particular and products are critical in the context of a 30-year attention in Europe. outlook. These, in turn, will be crucially affected by T hird, there is a considerable growth potential future changes in the relative abundance/scarcity of for new GM applications in developed countries. p ro duction factors, notably land, capital and Examples include GM fish varieties or GM crops labour. In developed countries, costs of labour may for renewable energy. O ther possibilities are GM-increase relative to land, which would favour the based nutraceuticals or GM applications for health further developm ent of labour-saving technolo and cosmetic applications. As these new applica gies. In developing countries, by contrast, factor tions are likely to produce m uch wider benefits proportions may change in the opposite direction than ju st cheaper food and feedstuffs, consumers with increasingly abundant labour and increasingly in developed countries are also m ore likely to scarce land. This would favour labour-intensive accept greater risks and thus to adopt these non-and land-saving technologies. T he critical question traditional applications at faster rates. in this regard is w hether and to what extent the private sector will cater for diverging needs and to what extent investments from the public sector are

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for GM crops, where productivity gains are based food at lower prices is particularly im portant for on savings in input needs (labour, capital) even poor consumers. They would particularly benefit when output (yields) is stagnant or declining. This w here GM products offer less expensive and was one of the main factors that contributed to the nutrient-enriched food staples, which account for a high adoption rates for GM crops in developed large share of their food expenditure. countries. If today’s relative factor proportions are A higher capacity to feed a more populous world. The a guide to the future, the incentives to adopt these capacity that GM crops offer to produce more and new technologies in developing countries are likely better food is even more im portant when the future to be subdued. Moreover, private investors have food needs of growing populations are considered. little incentive to provide proprietary technologies Much of the incremental food production in the where the chances of recouping investments in future has to come from higher yields, yet the research and developm ent are small. This suggests potential to raise actual yields through more tradi that the public sector will have to play a significant tional agronomic improvem ents such as earlier role in providing the technologies to cater for the ploughing, scotch carts, higher fertilizer and pesti specific needs of developing countries. cide applications is declining. A slowdown in yield growth has already been observed in some high- intensity systems in Asia, where the gap between yields attained by farm ers and the economic maximum yield has narrowed noticeably. Productivity gains. Biotechnology The potential to save and improve resources or recoup

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Box 11.4 GURTs: technical aspects and possible impacts

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enforcem ent and the excludability that is associated approach, which is being used in assessing the with them is another source of concern. In general, risks of GMOs, derives from the concept of the excludability is of critical importance in encour substantial equivalence.4 If the GM O-derived food aging private research in all sectors. W ithout it, is ju d g ed to be substantially equivalent to its tradi innovators would not be able to recoup their invest tional counterpart, then it is considered as safe as ments, private research would languish, produc its conventional counterpart. If it is not, further tivity gains would slow down and social welfare tests are conducted. would suffer. Recognition of the importance of I PR Critics claim that only 1 percent of public has brought about a strengthening of legal protec research funds has been allocated to assess the risks tion for biotechnology processes and products and associated with the introduction of GM technolo spurred on significant private investment in biotech gies. It is suggested that the experience with tradi nology. But the strengthening of IPR has also given tional counterparts cannot be applied to products rise to concern. First, the scope of intellectual pro p based on GM technology, as the substantial equiva erty protection may be too wide, thereby choking off lence approach implies, and that the new technolo spillovers, follow-on innovations and diffusion. gies require a new risk assessment approach. Second, IPR afford private companies the possibility U nderestim ating or ignoring the risks m eans that of protecting the alteration of a single gene derived external costs associated with the technology are from freely accessible germplasm that has been not fully accounted for and that the welfare gains of generated by farmers and public research efforts the new technology may be overstated. T he recent over centuries. Developing countries in particular accidental use for hum an food consum ption of GM believe that they should be compensated for their maize that contains a potentially allergen protein contributions to existing genetic resources. The has reinforced such concerns. International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Genes can end up in unexpected places. T he artifi Food and A griculture (PGRFA), adopted in cially inserted genes m ight be passed on to other November 2001, addresses these concerns (Box m embers of the same species, and perhaps to other 11.5). It could assume a pivotal role in facilitating species. A ntibiotic-resistance genes are often access to plant genetic resources in the future and in inserted into GMOs as m arkers so that researchers safeguarding traditional indigenous contributions to can tell w hether gene transfer has succeeded or not. the breeding process (farmers’ rights). These genes may be transferred to bacteria within Biosecurity. A third area of public concern the hum an body with yet unclear impacts. While revolves around the risk that biotechnology appli this technique is now being replaced, other prob cations in food and agriculture pose to hum an lems may rem ain. T here is even a possibility that health and the environm ent. Consum ers in all the gene for herbicide resistance may transfer to countries would like assurances that GM products weeds, with potentially disastrous impacts for agri reaching the m arket have been adequately tested, culture and food security. and that these products are being m onitored to Genes can mutate. It is still unclear what impact ensure safety and to identify problem s as soon as the artificially inserted gene has on the stability of they emerge. Because of the complexity of food the genome. T here are claims that it may cause products, research on the safety of GM foods is m ore unexpected m utations. W hile m utations thought to be m ore difficult than carrying out could be neither new nor necessarily bad, GMOs studies on com ponents such as pesticides, pharm a may cause unexpected and undesirable instability. ceuticals, industrial chemicals and food additives. “Sleeper” genes could accidentally be switched on. T h ro ugh the Codex A lim entarius Commission Organisms can contain genes that are not activated and other fora, countries discuss standards for except under certain conditions, for exam ple under GMOs and ways to ensure their safety. O ne the influence of pathogens or as a result of certain

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Box 11.5 The International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture

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crops that have been bred for m illennia to cope small to develop it. If left unaddressed, such disjoint with local stresses. For exam ple, the existence of interests can result in a situation that neglects the traditional potato varieties in Latin Am erica interests of the poor. Bridging these gaps calls for perm itted a recovery from the catastrophic potato appropriate policy action and for international blight in Ireland in the 1840s. Today, traits from policy coordination. farm ers’ varieties and wild relatives are often used High-value versus low-value goods. The willingness to improve climate tolerance and disease resist of a society to bear the risks of a new technology is ance. GM crop varieties m ight also cross, and thus positively related to the benefits draw n and com pete, with wild relatives of crops such as wheat expected from it. The benefit from cheaper food and barley. This is especially risky in the developing staples such as rice, maize or soybeans is likely to be world, where wild relatives may be found growing small for rich consumers in the north and high for close to farm ed crops. poor consumers in the south. Rich consumers are therefore unlikely to assume the same risks as poor consumers and, if the benefits are sufficiently small, they are rational to reject the new technology altogether. Consumers in the developed countries accept

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north or an added form of protecting domestic agri oping countries. This, of course, may reduce the culture. A smaller m arket volume for GM crops in overall incentive for the private sector to invest in turn may adversely affect the profitability of devel crop research and could result in an overall loss in oping the new technology. A lack of m arket access productivity. may render research and developm ent non-viable Private-public partnerships in GM research. The for the south. public sector could explore a num ber of routes to collaborate with the private sector to target devel oping countries’ specific needs, such as poverty

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fully addressed at the “drawing board” stage. This farm ing system interacts. Recent advances in has fundamental implications for the planning of ecology have been described alongside molecular future agricultural research strategies. genetics as the second great revolution in m odern To meet the food security needs of an expanding biology. The past decade or so has seen the use of global population in the decades ahead and to mathematical modelling, the articulation of com pre reduce poverty, there is a need to maintain and hensive hypotheses and advances in experim ental increase significantly agricultural productivity on design in support of more precise laboratory and land at present available across the developing field experim ents. These trends have transform ed world and at the same time to conserve the natural the study of ecology into a rapidly developing resource base. This will require (i) increasing science (Begon, H arper and Townsend, 1990), productivity of the most im portant food crops both which should lead to a better understanding of the on the more fertile soils and on marginal lands; complex dynamics that are at work within agricul (ii) exploring possibilities for limiting the use of tural systems. Increasingly, natural resource chemical inputs and substituting these inputs with m anagem ent calls for closer collaboration between biologically based inputs; (iii) m ore precise use of ecologists and agricultural scientists whether they soil, water and nutrients in optimized integrated are addressing technical (biotic or abiotic), social or m anagem ent systems; and (iv) increasing produc economic dimensions of agricultural development. tion efficiency and disease tolerance in livestock. By definition, agro-ecosystem research embraces the These challenges call for a comprehensive and “ecological and socio-economic system, comprising com plex research agenda that m ust integrate domesticated plants and/or animals and the people current advances in the molecular sciences, biotech who husband them, intended for the purpose of nology and plant and pest ecology with a more producing food, fibre or other agricultural prod fundam ental understanding of plant and animal ucts” (Conway, 1987). production in the context of optimizing soil, water W ithin the biophysical b ound aries of the and nutrient-use efficiencies and synergies. Effective ecosystem , ecological research has m uch to exploitation of advances in inform ation and contribute at three levels: (i) at the level of the plant, communication technology will be necessary not its pests and predators; (ii) at the level of the plant only to facilitate the necessary interactions across and its competition from weeds; and (iii) at the level this broad spectrum of scientific disciplines but also of the plant rooting system and the roles of benefi to docum ent and integrate traditional wisdom and cial and competing micro-organisms in the capture knowledge in the planning of the research agenda and utilization of soil nutrients. Research at the and to disseminate the research results more widely. plant-pest-predator level is opening up new insights This agenda calls for a three-dimensional research in pest control, in one measure through the genetic paradigm that integrates scientific investigation developm ent of pest-resistant plant varieties and, at across genetics and biotechnology, ecology and the other end, in the refinem ent of IPM. natural resources and not least socio-economics to At the level of plant-weed competition, the keep in focus the development environm ent that geneticist’s approach has been to develop herbicide-characterizes the livelihoods and food security of resistant crops, while the ecology-based approach the poor. has been to develop crop rotations and intercrop T he first dimension (genetics and biotechnology) ping and high-density systems that minimize weed has been discussed in the preceding section. The following section will focus on the other two dim en dam age. Both approaches require still further research, particularly with greater focus on marginal sions. lands and food crops that are mostly grown by the poor. More fundamentally, a better understanding Ecology and natural resources management research. of plant genetics and of plants’ relation to other A comprehensive understanding of the ecology of competing plants may offer new insights to stable all life forms within the farming system is a prereq cropping systems. This would provide a m ore uisite to the development of sustainable agriculture informed basis on which to design cropping systems in the context of sound knowledge-driven use and and rotations that can sustain higher and more m anagem ent of the natural resources with which the stable yields.

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At the plant rooting levels, there is a need for Pest and disease incidence: describe, define and much more fundam ental research at the physical, track key insect pests using GIS and develop biochem ical/physiological and genetic bases of models that relate incidence to agroclimatic plant-micro-organism interactions and symbiosis conditions. (Cocking, 2001). N utrient utilization and biological Biodiversity: project alternative scenarios of nitrogen fixation lie at the heart of this research, functional biodiversity und er different land which can have enorm ous benefits for low-input m anagem ent systems. agriculture and the poor. The benefits to sustainable agriculture and the environm ent are obvious in the Defining research

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Research to underpin a new technology revolu information and communication technology can tion with greater focus on the poor must put special provide the vehicle for this information sharing and emphasis on those crop varieties and livestock dialogue, opening up the possibility of a global breeds that are specifically adapted to local ecosys knowledge system through which the sharing of tems and that were largely ignored throughout the global knowledge on all em erging technologies green revolution. These include crops such as relating to food and agriculture can be effectively cassava and the m inor root crops, bananas, ground realized (Alberts, 1999). This in turn will lead to the nuts, millet, some oilcrops, sorghum and sweet pota strengthening of the research process at all stages. toes. Indigenous breeds of cattle, sheep, goats, pigs National governm ent and international donor and poultry and locally adapted fish species must support for research has declined significantly over also receive much greater priority. A particular focus the past decade, despite compelling evidence on in the new research agenda should be on plant toler very high rates of return to investment in agricul ance to drought, salinity and low soil fertility as tural research and in particular in genetic improve nearly half of the world’s poor live in dryland m ent program mes for crops and livestock. This is regions with fragile soils and irregular rainfall particularly worrying at a time when there is a (Lipton, 1999). widely shared consensus on the absolute need and importance of strengthening agricultural research. Research modalities and dialogue. Research that While more and more funds go into biotechnology addresses only one com ponent in the development research, the other areas m entioned above are chain, for example crop yield potential, will not trailing behind. This is especially true for research result in an equitable or sustainable increase in food focusing on marginal areas and crops. The private production. New research efforts should address a sector can and must contribute m ore than just m inimum of four critical questions at key salient funding. As outlined above, its expertise, technolo points along the research continuum, from the gies and products are essential to the development conception/planning stage to the stage of application and growth of tropical agriculture based on rapidly of the outputs by the targeted beneficiary. The key advancing biotechnologies and genetically engi questions are: (i) w hether the technology will lead to neered products. It is argued by some that incen higher productivity across all farms, soil types and tives (e.g. in the form of tax concessions) should be regions; (ii) how the technology will affect the offered to induce private sector participation. It is seasonal stability of production; (iii) how the tech also argued that collaborative partnerships with nology will impinge on the sustainability of the private sector companies or foundations in well-targeted farming system; and (iv) what are the articulated and mutually beneficial agreements can sectors that will benefit most (or lose out) as a result mobilize the required cooperation and make signifi of the widespread adoption of the technology. It is cant contributions to agricultural research in the comparatively easy to tailor these questions to developing countries. specific research program mes depending on the To conclude, the scientific community bears a nature of the research to be undertaken, but it is responsibility to address ethical concerns. On the much more difficult to arrive at well-supported one hand, it must ensure that the technologies and answers, in particular at the research planning products of research do not adversely affect food stage. This research challenge needs scientists from safety or risk damage to the environm ent. In this a range of disciplines and from different agencies, context, timely and transparent communication of both public and private, to engage in close collabo relevant research findings and their interpretation ration, not only among themselves but also with the (risk analysis) to all pertinent audiences including intended beneficiaries -the farmers -either directly the general public is required. On the other hand, or through the extension services. Effective dialogue among all scientists and exten scientists, together with public servants, politicians sion workers in this research developm ent and private sector leaders, bear a more profound continuum also calls for a new information-sharing hum anitarian responsibility to ensure that all people mechanism that embraces transparent interactive can realize their most fundam ental right -the right to food. dialogue and easily accessible information. M odern

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CHAPTER Agriculture and the environment: changing pressures, solutions and trade-offs

12.1 Introduction Quantification of the agro-environmental impacts is not an exact science. First, there is considerable debate on their spatial extent, and on the m agni tude of the current and long-term biophysical

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the next 30 years greater consideration should be environm ent and w idening its positive ones. given to air pollution and offsite dam age because Finally, it considers the range of situations and their costs may exceed those of land and water trade-offs that may influence the uptake of these pollution, loss of biodiversity and onsite dam age. It options. T he im portant issue of climate change is should be noted that a large proportion of these exam ined both here and in C hapter 13. This environm ental costs stems from climate change chapter exam ines the role of agriculture as a and its impacts, which are still very uncertain (see driving force for climate change, while C hapter 13 C hapter 13). exam ines the im pact of climate change on agricul It is generally accepted that most developing tural production and food security. countries will increasingly face the type of agro-environm ental impacts that have become so serious in developed countries over the past 30 years or m ore. T he commodity production and input use 12.2 Major trends and forces projections presented in Chapters 3 and 4 provide It is clear from the crop production projections an overall fram ew ork for assessing the likely presented in C hapter 4 that the key issue for the impacts of agricultural activities on the environ future is the environm ental pressure from intensi m ent over the next 30 years in developing coun fication of land use, rather than land cover or land tries. Several large developing countries already use changes alone. Some 80 percent of the incre have average fertilizer and pesticide application m ental crop production in developing countries rates exceeding those causing m ajor environm ental will come from intensification and the rem ainder problem s in developed countries. Similarly, some from arable land expansion (Table 4.2). Thus the developing countries have intensive livestock units dom inant agro-environm ental costs and benefits as large as those in Europe and N orth America that over the projection period will continue to be those are regarded as serious threats to waterbodies stem m ing from the use of im proved cultivars and (OECD, 2001a). higher inputs of plant nutrients and livestock feeds, M oreover, the experience of agro-environ-together with better nutrient m anagem ent and m ental impacts in developed countries can give tillage practices, pest m anagem ent and irrigation. advance w arning to developing countries where Nonetheless, extensification of agriculture in envi agro-ecological conditions are similar to those in ronm entally fragile “hot spots” or areas high in OECD countries. Developing countries are likely to biodiversity will also rem ain of continuing concern. face sim ilar problem s w hen adoptin g sim ilar T he positive benefits of these changes will patterns of intensification. They can use the expe include a slowdown of soil erosion and at least a rience of developed countries to identify some of slower increase in pollution from fertilizers and the policy and technological solutions to limit or pesticides. Likely outcomes on the negative side are avoid negative agro-environm ental impacts, and to a continuing rise in groundw ater nitrate levels identify the trade-offs. They can also estimate the from poor fertilizer m anagem ent, further land and economic costs (externalities) of the agro-environ-yield losses through salinization, and growing air m ental impacts of intensive agriculture that are not and water pollution from livestock. cu rren tly reflected in agricultural com m odity The main agro-environm ental problems fall into prices, and these costs can provide a basis for policy two groups. First, there are those that are global in and technology priority setting. scale such as, for example, the increase in atmos It will be argued that higher priority than is pheric concentrations of the GHGs carbon dioxide currently the case should be given to lowering agri (C 0 2) through deforestation, and nitrous oxide culture’s impact on air and water. T he rem ainder (N20 ) arising from crop production (H oughton et of this chapter assesses the changing pressures on al., 1995; Mosier and Kroeze, 1998). T he second the environm ent from agriculture, using the group of problem s is found in discrete locations of projections for land, water, agrochemical input and the m ajor continents and most countries, but at technological change given in earlier chapters. It present has no substantive impact at the global exam ines the main technology and policy options level. Examples are the salinization of irrigated for limiting agriculture’s negative impacts on the lands and the buildup of nitrate fertilizer residues

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in groundw ater and surface water. These problem s International action has also been taken to first em erged in the developed countries in the strengthen research on the biophysical changes that 1970s as a consequence of agricultural intensifica agriculture is causing (Walker and Steffen, 1999), tion. However, they have become of increasing and to m onitor the key indicators of agro-ecosystem im portance in some developing countries during health (ICSU/UNEP/FAO/UNESCO/WMO, 1998; the past decade or so, and are destined to become OECD, 1991, 2001b) so as to understand and give m ore widespread and m ore intense unless there is a advance warning of any threats to agricultural break from current policy and technological trends. sustainability. Most of the negative impacts from agriculture on the environm ent can be reduced or prevented by an appropriate mix of policies and technological 12.3 Changing pressures on changes (see, for exam ple, UN, 1993; Alexandratos, 1995; Pretty, 1995; and Conway, 1997). T here is the environment growing public pressure for a m ore environm en tally benign agriculture. Countries also have to comply with the W TO Agreem ent on Agriculture and the UNCED Conventions (particularly the Public attention tends to focus on the m ore visible Framework Convention on Climate Change). This forces countries to reduce commodity price distor signs of agriculture’s impact on the environm ent, whereas it seems likely that the non-visible or less tions and input subsidies, and encourages them to obvious impacts of air pollution cause the greatest remove other policy interventions that tend to economic costs (Pretty et al., 2001). Agriculture worsen agro-environm ental impacts, and to inte affects air quality and the atm osphere in four main grate environm ental considerations explicitly into ways: particulate m atter and GHGs from land clear agricultural policies. At the national level, there is now a range of ance by fire (mainly rangeland and forest) and the burning of rice residues; m ethane from rice and policy options available to correct past agro-envi livestock production; nitrous oxide from fertilizers ronm ental mistakes and to prevent or limit future and m anure; and ammonia from m anure and urine. ones. T he main problem s were first recognized in those developed countries that em barked on agri cultural intensification in the 1940s and 1950s, e.g. Soot, dust and

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change. Its w arm ing potential is about 20 times m ore pow erful than carbon dio x id e.1 Global could m ore than double, largely because of the rapid growth of pig and poultry production in m ethane emissions am ount at present to about these regions. 540 million tonnes p.a., increasing at an annual rate of 20-30 million tonnes. Rice production Rice cultivation is the other m ajor agricultural source of m ethane. T he harvested area of rice is currently contributes about 11 percent of global projected to expand by only about 4.5 percent by m ethane emissions. A round 15 percent comes from 2030 (Table 4.11) depending on yield growth livestock (from enteric ferm entation by cattle, sheep and goats and from animal excreta). T he rates, and possibly on the ability of technological livestock contribution can be higher or lower at the im provem ents to com pensate for climate-change-national level depending on the extent and level of induced productivity loss if this becomes serious (W assm ann, Moya an d L antin, 1998). Total intensification. In the U nited K ingdom and m ethane emissions from rice production will prob Canada the share is over 35 percent. ably not increase m uch in the longer term and T he production structure for rum inants in could even decrease, for two reasons. First, about developing countries is expected to increasingly half of rice is grown using almost continuous shift towards that prevalent in the industrial coun flooding, which m aintains anaerobic conditions in tries. T he m ajor share of cattle and dairy produc tion will come from feedlot, stall-fed or other the soil and hence results in high m ethane emis restricted grazing systems and by 2030 nearly all sions. However, because of water scarcity, labour pig and poultry production will also be concen shortages and better water pricing, an increasing trated in appropriate housings. Much of it will be pro portion of rice is expected to be grown und er controlled irrigation and better nutrient m anage on an industrial scale with potentially severe local impacts on air and water pollution. m ent, causing m ethane emissions to fall. Second, T he livestock projections in this rep o rt up to 90 percent of the m ethane from rice fields is (Chapter 5) entail both positive and negative impli em itted through the rice plant. New high-yielding cations for m ethane emissions. T he projected varieties exist that em it considerably less m ethane increase in livestock productivity, in part related to than some of the widely used traditional and im provem ents in feed intake and feed digestibility, m odern cultivars, and this property could be should reduce em issions per anim al. Factors widely exploited over the next ten to 20 years tending to increase emissions are the projected (Wang, N eue and Sam onte, 1997). increase in cattle, sheep and goat num bers and the projected shift in production systems from grazing Nitrous oxide. N itrous oxide (N20 ) is the other to stall-feeding. T he latter is im portant because pow erful G HG for which agriculture is the dom i storage of m anure in a liquid or waterlogged state n an t anthropogenic source (Table 12.2). M ineral fertilizer use and cattle pro duction are the m ain is the principal source of m ethane emissions from m anure, and these conditions are typical of the culprits. N 20 is generated by n atural biogenic lagoons, pits and storage tanks used by intensive processes, bu tou tp u t is enhanced by agriculture stall-feeding systems. W hen appropriate technolo th ro ugh nitrogen fertilizers, the creation o f crop gies are introduced to use m ethane in local power residues, anim al urine and faeces, and nitrogen production, as has been done in some South and leaching and runoff. N 20 form ation is sensitive to East Asian countries, the changes can be beneficial. climate, soil type, tillage practices and type and If emissions grow in direct proportion to the placem ent o f fertilizer. It is also linked to the projected increase in livestock num bers and in release o f nitric oxide and am m onia, which carcass weight or milk output (see C hapter 5), contribute to acid rain and the acidification of global m ethane emissions could be 60 percent soils and drainage systems (M osier and Kroeze, higher by 2030. Growth in the developed regions 1998). Thecu rre n t ag ricu ltu ral contribution will be slow, but in East and South Asia emissions to total global nitrogen emissions is estim ated at 4.7m illion tonnes p.a., but there is great uncer-

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extensive to intensive production systems and from dom estic em issions an d im prove energy-use low- to higher-quality feeds, it can be assumed that efficiency, w hereas th e re is little action on there will be an increase in N 20 emissions from re duc in g ag riculture-related emissions. T he deposited dung and urine. T he third source is ammonia released from intensive livestock systems from the storage of excreta produced in stall-contributes to both local (Pitcairn et al., 1998) and feeding or in intensive production units. This may longer-distance deposition of nitrogen (Asman, produce a reduction in emissions since, on average, 1994). This causes dam age to trees and acidifica stored excreta produce about half as m uch N20 as tion and eutrophication of terrestrial and aquatic excreta deposited on pastures (Mosier et al., 1996). ecosystems, leading to decreased nutrient avail Changes in m anure production over time have ability, disruption of nitrogen fixation and other been estimated using the projected growth in live microbiological processes, and declining species stock populations (allowing for differences between richness (UNEP/RIVM, 1999). cattle, dairy, sheep and goats, pigs and poultry). The livestock projections of this study are based T he am ounts per head have been adjusted on a on changes in both animal num bers and in produc regional basis to allow for projected changes in tivity, as determ ined by changes in carcass weight or carcass weight and milk output. Emission rates have milk output per animal. It is assumed that the been adjusted for the assumed shifts from extensive volume of excreta per animal, which is the main to stall-fed systems. Based on these assumptions and source of the ammonia, increases over time in estim ates, the total pro duction of m anure is proportion to carcass weight, which in turn is a projected to rise by about 60 percent between reflection of the increase in the use of feed concen 1997/99 and 2030. However, N20 emissions are trates. Table 12.3 gives estimates of am m onia emis projected to rise slightly m ore slowly (i.e. by about sions in 1997/99 and 2030 using these assumptions. 50 percent) because of the switch from extensive to T he projected increase for the developing countries stall-fed systems. This relative environm ental gain (80 percent) is significantly higher than the increase from intensification has to be seen against the rise in (50 percent) given in Bouwman et al. (1997). am monia and m ethane emissions and the probable These projections have three main environ growth in point-source pollution that the intensive m ental im plications. First, all the developing livestock units will generate. This latter cannot be regions potentially face am m onia emission levels quantified but is a very serious problem in a that have caused serious ecosystem dam age in the num ber of developed and developing countries (de developed countries. Second, em issions may Haan, Steinfeld and Blackburn, 1998). continue to rise in the developed countries, adding to the already serious dam age in some areas. And Agriculture is the dom inant source of third, in East Asia and Latin America, a high

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companies to create pastures on deforested land. drainage of wetlands will result in loss of biodiver However, deforestation by smallholders has not sity and of fish spawning grounds, with increased been reduced. In West Africa, almost no primary carbon dioxide but lower methane emissions. rain forest is left, and over 80 percent of the popu Third, high-quality cropland will continue to be lation is still rural and growing at 2.5-3 percent p.a. lost to urban and industrial development. -a situation that is likely to continue until non-agricultural employment opportunities are found. Uplands are particularly The total extent o f grassland is likely to prone to water erosion where cultivated slopes are decrease. In most developing regions the general steeper than 10 to 30 percent, lack appropriate trend is away from extensive grazing towards soil conservation measures and rainfall is heavy. mixed farming and improved pastures or inten Substantial areas o f land are at risk (Bot, sive feedlot and stall-fed systems. It is assumed Nachtergaele and Young, 2000), although it is not that there will be no substantial developm ent of possible to make global or even regional estimates new grassland. Some of the more marginal range of how much of this is currently cropped land. In lands and pastures are likely to be abandoned as Southeast Asia, land pressure caused by increasing herders and other livestock producers leave the population has extended the use of steep hill land for better-paid jobs outside agriculture, as slopes particularly for maize production. This has happened in parts o f Europe after about 1950 led to a very significant increase in erosion on (CEC, 1980). In the absence of grazing pressure lands with slopes of over 20 percent (Huizing and these areas will revert to forest or scrub. Some of Bronsveld, 1991). the better grazing land will be converted to crop There are two main environmental concerns land or urban land, with the loss being com pen for the future. First, more forest may be cleared for sated by improving productivity on the remaining cultivation, resulting in the loss of biodiversity and land rather than by clearing new land. At the increased soil erosion. Second, existing cultivated national level some countries will diverge from slopes may be cropped more intensively, leading to this global picture. Countries such as China, some greater soil erosion and other forms of land degra Commonwealth of Independent States countries dation (Shaxson, 1998). and parts of South America still have the potential In countries such as Bhutan and Nepal with for major increases in the use of natural grass limited flat land left to develop, almost all of the lands (Fan Jiangwen, 1998). additional land brought into cultivation in the Net arable land expansion in developing coun future will be steep lands prone to erosion unless tries is projected to fall from about 5 million ha p. a. well terraced, or protected by grass strips, conserva over the past four decades to less than 3.8 million ha tion tillage, etc. In Nepal, for example, soil erosion p.a. over the period to 2030 (Table 4.7). This net rates in the hills and mountains are in the range increase takes into account the area of cropland of 20 to 50 tonnes/ha/p.a. in agriculture fields and going out of use because of degradation, which some 200 tonnes/ha/p.a. in some highly degraded water argue is in the order of 5 to 6 million ha p.a. (UNEP, sheds (Carson, 1992). Crop yields in these areas 1997). It also takes into account land abandoned declined by 8 to 21 percent over the period 1970-because it is no longer economically attractive to 1995. Such losses seem likely to continue, unless farm or as a result of changes in government policy, there are substantial changes in farmer incentives and land taken up by urbanization. It does not, for soil conservation and wider knowledge at all however, take account of the area that is Restored to levels of the economic and environmental benefits use for reasons other than crop production, e.g. as that conservation provides. In countries with less part of agricultural carbon sequestration policies. In acute land pressure there may be a slowing down in the future such areas could be substantial. the expansion of cropped slope lands, but there will Even though an overall slowdown in the expan still be pressures for the intensification of cultivation sion of agricultural land is expected, there are and hence the risk of greater erosion. three areas of concern. First, the frequency or Deforestation of slope lands was a serious intensity of cultivation of formerly forested slope concern in the past but may slow down over the lands will probably increase. Second, further projection period. On the one hand, a good part of

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the 3.8 million ha annual net new cropland over of wetlands, such as groundw ater recharge and the period to 2030 will probably come from forest conversion. A high proportion will have steep natural flood relief, and disruption of migration slopes and will be in zones with high rainfall, so the routes and overwintering grounds of certain birds. water erosion risk will be high unless suitable In central China, for exam ple, around half a million ha of wetlands have been reclaimed for m anagem ent techniques are adopted (Fischer, van crop production since about 1950, contributing to Velthuizen and Nachtergaele, 2000). On the other a reduction of floodw ater storage capacity of hand, large areas of existing crop and grazing land approxim ately 50 billion m 3 (Cai, Zhao and Du, -m uch of which is likely to be slope land -could revert to forest and scrub because of land aban 1999). T here is strong evidence that wetland recla donm ent and outm igration. m ation is responsible for about two-thirds of this loss in storage capacity, and thus for about two-Historically, the reclam a thirds of the US$20 billion flood dam age in 1998 tion of wetlands has m ade a m ajor contribution to (Norse et al., 2001). Similar links have been estab agricultural growth and food security. Significant lished for the severe 1993 floods in the U nited parts of the rich croplands of the Mississippi basin States (IFMRC, 1994). Therefore it is im portant to in the U nited States, the Po Valley in Italy and the introduce appropriate planning and regulatory Nile Delta in Egypt are reclaimed wetlands. T he mechanisms to ensure that any future wetland developing countries have over 300 million ha of developm ent is undertaken with the necessary safe natural wetlands that are potentially suitable for guards, as is the case in the United States and a crop production. Some of the w etlands will num ber of other developed countries (Wiebe, Tegene and Kuhn, 1995). inevitably be drained for crop production. Part will be in countries with relatively large land areas per capita but limited areas with adequate rainfall or As irrigation potential, e.g. Senegal. Part will be in populations grow, m uch good cropland is lost to countries where m uch of the potential arable land urban and industrial developm ent, roads and is not well suited for sustainable agriculture reservoirs. For sound historic and strategic reasons, because of steep slopes or thin, fragile soils, so the most urban areas are sited on flat coastal plains or developm ent of wetlands is therefore a m ore river valleys with fertile soils. Given that m uch attractive option, e.g. Indonesia. future urban expansion will be centred on such W etlands are flat, and by definition well areas, the loss of good-quality cropland seems likely watered. In the case of some Sahelian countries to continue. In fact the losses seem inevitable, given they are potentially im portant contributors to food the low economic returns to farm capital and security (Juo and Lowe, 1986). Past experience in labour com pared with non-agricultural uses. Such the inland valleys of the Sahelian belt suggest, losses are essentially irreversible and in land-scarce however, that reclam ation for agriculture has been countries the implications for food security could be serious. of doubtful benefit despite huge international investments. Many irrigation schemes have failed Estimates of non-agricultural use of land per through m ism anagem ent and inadequate infra thousand persons range from 22 ha in India stru ctu re m aintenance, civil un rest and weak (Katyal et al., 1997), to 15-28 ha in China (Ash and m arket developm ent. T he soils in this region are Edm unds, 1998) and to 60 ha in the United States potentially productive once certain constraints are (W aggoner, 1994). T he m agnitude of fu tu re overcome, e.g. acid sulphate, alum inium and iron conversions of land for urban uses is not certain, toxicity and waterlogging. nor how m uch of it will be good arable land. T here Assuming that the present rate of drainage of is no doubt, however, that losses could be substan wetlands declines, the total conversion over the tial. In China, for exam ple, the losses between 1985 projection period will am ount to a relatively small and 1995 were over 2 million ha, and the rate of part of the 300 million ha they currently cover, but loss to industrial construction has increased since even this would carry some environm ental risks. 1980 (Ash and Edm unds, 1998). There may be damage to the hydrological functions T he projected increase in world population betw een 2000 and 2030 is some 2.2 billion.

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Crosson (1997) suggests that recent rates of land that land degradation is so bad that it has negated degradation and particularly soil erosion have had many of the gains in land productivity of recent only a small impact on productivity, and argues that decades. Support for this view comes from detailed the annual average loss for cropland productivity analysis of resource degradation und er intensive since the mid-1950s was lower than 0.3 percent. crop production systems in the Pakistan and Indian Similarly, according to GLASOD there is almost no Punjab (Murgai, Ali and Byerlee, 2001). cultivated land in China that is not degraded in one T hree issues arise here. First, these estimates way or another. Almost all the areas of rice cultiva are global and regional averages, whereas the tion in south and southeast China are classified as im plications of deg rad atio n for agricultural being affected by high or very high water erosion, production and food security are prim arily local and large wheat-growing areas southeast of Beijing and national. O n the one hand, there are com plex are classified as suffering from m edium levels of trade-offs and com pensatory mechanisms involved chemical deterioration (salinization). Yet, in spite of in some forms of degradation. A high pro portion of this, China was able to increase its wheat production eroded soil is redeposited elsewhere in the catch between the early 1960s and mid-1990s from about m ent area, w here it tends to boost productivity, but 16 to 110 million tonnes, and its paddy production it may also silt up reservoirs and irrigation canals. from 63 to 194 million tonnes. Moreover, more For exam ple, in the U nited States some 45 percent detailed assessments suggest that there has been is redeposited locally, and some 46 percent in lakes, little deterioration in C hina’s (and Indonesia’s) soils reservoirs and other.im poundm ents (Smith et al., since the 1950s and they may have actually 2001). O n the other hand, there are also a num ber im proved up to the 1980s (Lindert, 2000.) Water of so-called hot spots w here the degradation is erosion from most rice fields is very low (Norse et a l, already serious and could get worse (Scherr and 2001). Nonetheless, rising yields may have masked Yadav, 1996). These hot spots include some of the productivity losses. developing countries’ most fertile river basins Oldem an (1998) estimates the global cumulative (Table 12.6), which play a vital role in food security. loss of cropland productivity at about 13 percent, Second, the most visible degradation tends to but there are large regional differences. Africa and be on m arginal lands, whereas the bulk of food Central America may have suffered declines of 25 pro duction occurs on m ore favourable lands, and 38 percent respectively since 1945. Asia and particularly irrigated areas (Norse, 1988). O n such South America, on the other hand, may have lost favoured lands relatively low rates of degradation only about 13 percent, while Europe and N orth could have large impacts on productivity and America have lost only 8 percent. UNEP (1999) yields, although th ere are som e gro unds for does not accept Crosson’s assessment and argues concluding that this will not be the case. T here is

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growing evidence that farmers are able to adapt to such as reduced soil erosion, reduced loss of plant environmental stress in ways that limit degradation nutrients, higher rainfall infiltration and better soil (Mortimore and Adams, 2001; Mazzucato and moisture-holding capacity (see Chapter 11 and Niemeijer, 2001). Section 12.4.3 below). NT/CA will have positive Third, there are factors at work that may effects on the physical, chemical and biological reduce degradation in the coming decades. These status of soils. Organic matter levels of soils, for include the wider use of direct measures to prevent example, are likely to rise. Organic matter is a or reverse degradation (Branca, 2001), and indi major source of plant nutrients and is the glue that rect measures such as improved irrigation tech holds soil particles together and stabilizes the pore niques and water pricing to reduce salinization. structure. Organic matter makes soils less vulner The spread of NT/CA will limit the damage caused able to wind erosion and functions as a sponge for by conventional tillage. Nonetheless the results holding water and slowing down its loss from the from the Punjab show no grounds for complacency crop root zone by drainage or evaporation. regarding the sustainability of some high-input Moreover, the nutrients added to the soil as organic crop production systems, and point to the need for residues are released more gradually than those increased fertilizer-use efficiency and reduced from mineral fertilizers and are therefore less prone salinization. to leaching, volatilization or fixation (Avnimelech, 1986). In addition, higher soil organic matter levels are commonly associated with greater levels of Will the area of degraded arable and pastoral humic acid, which increases phosphate availability land expand in the future, or deteriorate further, and thus can be very beneficial in those areas with e.g. because o f population pressure or the strongly phosphate-fixing soils found in sub-projected intensification of production? Saharan Africa and Latin America. A lthough the projections presented in Third, fertilizer consumption and fertilizer-use Chapter 4 do not directly address the issue of land efficiency are projected to rise. This will bring degradation, they do contain a number of features benefits in terms of higher soil fertility and soil that can be used to assess how some forms of organic matter levels. Soil erosion will diminish degradation may decline or become more serious because of the positive impact on root prolifera in the future. tion, plant growth and ground cover of increased First, about one-third of the harvested area in phosphate and potassium (associated with more developing countries in 2030 is projected to be irri balanced fertilizer inputs). gated land (Table 4.8), up from 29 percent in These conclusions are broadly consistent with 1997/99. This is generally flat or well-terraced land projections made by the International Food Policy with little erosion. However, parts may be at risk Research Institute (IFPRI) (Agcaoili, Perez and from salinization, particularly in more arid zones Rosegrant, 1995; Scherr and Yadav, 1996). That is, (Norse et al., 2001). In addition, a quarter of the global losses to degradation are likely to be small, harvested rainfed land is estimated to have slopes of but losses could be significant in some localities less than 5 percent, which are generally not prone and regions. However, soil productivity loss from to heavy water erosion. Their annual soil losses of land degradation could be much more serious if around 10 tonnes per ha should be reduced where the above gains from NT/CA, greater fertilizer use it is economically feasible to do so, but such rates and fertilizer-use efficiency, and other forms of soil could be tolerated for several hundred years before and water conservation are less than we estimate, they have an appreciable impact on crop produc and crop yield growth slows appreciably, as tion. In all, around half of the cropland will not be projected in Chapter 4. markedly prone to soil erosion, although it may be On the other hand, there are sound reasons subject to other forms of land degradation to believe that some of the fragile lands most prone including salinization, nutrient mining, soil acidifi to degradation will be abandoned. This will not cation and compaction. necessarily result in additional pressures for defor Second, the global area of rainfed land under estation and cropland development, because high NT/CA could grow considerably, bringing benefits rates of urbanization and rural-urban migration

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are projected for the future. This outmigration 1998). This has shown that the desert margins are could, for example, reduce degradation stemming quite dynamic because of natural climate variation. from the cultivation of slope lands, and lower some The problem is more one of localized dryland of the pressure on grazing land in the Sahel and degradation because of overgrazing, excessive fuel other semi-arid and arid areas. collection, bad tillage practices and inappropriate This is likely to have similar effects to those expe cropping systems. rienced in western European countries from the Nonetheless, there has been some expansion of 1950s and 1960s onwards (CEC, 1980; Baldock eta l, the deserts and dryland degradation (Dregne and 1996), and in Eastern European countries since the Chou, 1992). Degradation of vegetation and native 1990s. Here rural outmigration and the restruc habitat is the major reason for species extinction in turing of agriculture led to the abandonment of many semi-arid and subhumid environments. steep slopes and other marginal land and reduced Rapid rates of species loss, particularly of beneficial pressure to develop any more land. Substantial areas insects, birds and other predators may reduce the of marginal land were abandoned and reverted to capacity for natural suppression of the pests, forest or scrub. In France this amounted to around diseases and weeds that are among the greatest 3 percent p.a. in the 1960s and early 1970s (Faudry threats to current levels of agricultural production. and Tauveron, 1975). In Italy around 1.5 million ha However, quantification is not precise (Dregne and were abandoned in the 1960s, of which some Chou, 1992). The mtist extreme estimates suggest 70 percent was slope land, with decreases of that about 70 percent of the 3.6 billion ha of 20 percent in some provinces (CEC, 1980). The drylands are degraded, although this is likely to decline was very rapid, and closely related to sharp be an overestimate. More probing analysis is falls in agricultural employment. highlighting the resilience and adaptability of crop Rural outmigration and agricultural restruc and livestock systems in vulnerable areas such as turing have also been occurring in many devel the Sahel (Behnke, Scoones and Kerven, 1993; oping countries and are projected to continue. Mortimore and Adams, 2001). This trend is most noticeable in countries such as Looking to the future, there seem to be several China, where urbanization is accompanied by a ongoing positive forces that could have a significant shift to alternative income sources. It follows, effect. First, the contraction in extensive livestock therefore, that a significant percentage of the production should take the pressure off some slope land cultivated at present could be aban drylands and reduce dryland degradation. Second, doned over the next three decades in many devel gains in productivity on favourable lands should oping countries, with a substantial proportion allow some of the marginal drylands to revert to reverting to forest. However, in densely popu range or scrub. Third, the spread of irrigation, lated rural economies, such as Indonesia, where water-harvesting techniques and measures to avoid the rate o f population growth is still over or overcome salinization should improve the 2 percent p.a., population drift to cities has not sustainability of dryland agriculture. Fourth, the significantly reduced the density of rural settle continued adoption of NT/CA permits greater ment, or improved the economic livelihoods of rainfall infiltration and improves soil moisture-the majority of the rural population. holding capacity. Fifth, better drought- and Desertification is a serious form of dryland degra grazing-tolerant crops and grasses will be created dation, given priority by the international commu through gene transfer, although this is unlikely to nity in the form of the United Nations Convention have much impact before 2015. Sixth, countries to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). In the 1970s such as China and India are making major efforts and 1980s it was argued that the Sahara was to restore degraded land in arid areas (Sinha, spreading rapidly southwards as part of an irre 1997). Finally, there are widespread efforts to versible expansion of the world’s deserts. Since restore saline and other degraded soils that have then, counter-arguments have been growing in gone out of production. In the view of some force, backed up by strong empirical evidence from analysts, restored lands could total 200-300 million remote-sensing activities (Nicholson and Tucker, ha by 2025 (GCSI, 1999). On the negative side, at 1998; Prince, Brown de Colstoun and Kravitz, least in the medium term, are the expansion or

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intensification of cropping in semi-arid areas and they are allowed to. T he lack of opportunities further losses from salinization. to raise the productivity of extensive livestock Overgrazing has been one of the central environ systems, and changing income sources and aspira mental concerns related to livestock activities. It can tions am ong livestock producers will continue to lead to the degradation of grasslands and desertifi cause shifts to m ore intensive systems on the better cation in semi-arid areas, while on steep slopes it can lands closer to urban markets, or out of agriculture cause serious soil erosion. Scherr and Yadav (1996) altogether. Finally, some of the institutional and highlight overgrazing in parts of the Caribbean and infrastructural constraints that have encouraged N orth Africa, and the grazing of slopes in mid-alti overgrazing in the past will be reduced as growing tude areas of Asia as areas of concern. UNEP’s Global urbanization and income growth stimulate m arket Environment Outlook (UNEP, 1997) also lays emphasis improvem ents. on devegetation and land degradation from over-grazing. However, gaseous emissions and water pollution from livestock systems could be of greater global and more widespread national concern than overgrazing, although the latter will rem ain a serious threat in some areas. This is consistent with Many water m anagem ent and pollution issues have the detailed analysis of the impact of livestock on the grown in im portance in recent decades, such as environm ent given in de H aan, Steinfeld and growing com petition with the urban and industrial Blackburn (1998). sectors for the available water supply; poor irriga T here is a growing consensus that the im por tion water-use efficiency; overextraction of gro und tance of overgrazing has been m isjudged in the water; reduced infiltration of rainw ater into soils past, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This was in and reduced water recharge because of deforesta part caused by poor understanding of rangeland tion and land degradation; declining crop yields ecology, and in part by the lack of appreciation of and water quality related to waterlogging and traditional range m anagem ent practices in arid salinization; contam ination of groundw ater and and semi-arid areas (Behnke, Scoones and Kerven, surface water from fertilizers, pesticides and animal 1993). T he alleged overgrazing in the Sahel, for wastes; and the risk of greater aridity and soil mois exam ple, is m ainly a consequence of natural ture deficits towards the end of the projection climate variability, i.e. low rainfall in some years, period in some areas of sub-Saharan Africa and and poor stock m anagem ent rather than over South Asia because of climate change. stocking per se (Fleischhauer, Bayer and Lossau, 1998). T here is very little lasting im pact on the O verextraction of

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drinking-water without costly treatment. Lowering groundwater has become an issue in almost all of the water table increases pumping costs. It will industrial countries (OECD, 2001a). In large areas take many years to achieve the investments and of the EU, for example, concentrations are near to other changes required to limit overextraction, so or exceed the maximum permitted concentration several million ha of irrigated land may either go of 50 mg per litre or 50 ppm (parts per million). out of production or be faced with unsustainable This nitrate poses a risk to human health and operating costs. contributes to eutrophication of rivers, lakes and coastal waters. The bulk comes from diffuse Both these problems sources arising from mineral fertilizer and manure are commonly related to irrigation mismanage use on both crops and grasslands. The problem is ment. Waterlogging restricts plant growth. It arises now serious in parts of China and India and a from overirrigation and inadequate drainage, and number of other developing countries, and will get in many cases precedes salinization. Over 10 worse (Zhang et al., 1996). million ha are estimated to be affected by waterlog The problem occurs primarily when N applica ging (Oldeman, Hakkeling and Sombroek, 1991). tion rates exceed crop nutrient uptake. The risk Salinization results from the buildup of depends on crop type and yield, soil type and dissolved solids in soil and soil water, and can occur underlying rocks (Goulding, 2000). The risk of in rainfed areas with inherently susceptible soils (as high nitrogen (and some phosphate) losses in parts of Australia) as well as in irrigated areas. through leaching and runoff can become serious UNEP considers that salinization is the second unless there is good fertilizer management (Hydro, largest cause of land loss, but there are wide differ 1995; MAFF, 1999). There are large regional and ences in the estimates of the area affected and of the crop differences in fertilizer application rates per area going out of production. Oldeman, Hakkeling hectare (Daberkov et al., 1999), and large spatial and Sombroek (1991) estimate the total affected and temporal differences in nutrient levels and area to be over 76 million ha but do not differen fertilizer-use efficiency on similar soil types. Hence tiate between irrigated and rainfed areas. It seems the projected changes in average application rates possible that some 20 percent of the total irrigated given in Table 4.15 are not a good indicator of the area is affected and some 12 million ha of irrigated risk of nitrate losses. In the United Kingdom, the land may have gone out of production (Nelson and present average application rate for all arable crops Mareida, 2001). The problem can be very serious at is about 150 kg N/ha, but the range is 25-275 kg the subregional and national level. India, for N/ha with application rates of more than 150 kg on example, has lost about 7 million ha (Umali, 1993; over 35 percent of arable land. In parts of China FAO/UNDP/UNEP, 1994; FAO, 1999b). In some the situation is even more extreme with some rice semi-arid countries, 10 to 50 percent of the irri farmers applying over 870 kg N/ha, almost four gated area is affected to a greater or lesser degree times the national average. As stated above, high (Umali, 1993; FAO, 1997b, 1997e), with average application rates as such should not be a problem yield decreases of 10 to 25 percent for many crops as long as crop yields are commensurate, but they (FAO, 1993a; Umali, 1993). Unfortunately there are become problematic when application rates exceed little or no time series data to allow reliable esti crop nutrient uptake. In contrast, most crop mates of the rates of change in the salinized area. It production in sub-Saharan Africa takes place could be 1-1.5 million ha p.a. and increasing without the benefit of mineral fertilizers and soil (Umali, 1993) but it is difficult to quantify. Of partic fertility remains very low or declining (Chapter 4). ular concern are those irrigated areas in semi-arid Chapter 4 assumes substantial gains in fertilizer-regions that support large rural populations, such use efficiency and hence a relatively modest aggre as the western Punjab and Indus valley where large gate growth rate in N fertilizer demand, projected to areas of waterlogged saline land are spreading decline to less than 1 percent p.a. by 2030. However, through the intensively irrigated plains. extensive areas in both developed and developing countries already receive large nitrogen fertilizer Since the 1970s extensive applications that are not commensurate with the leaching of nitrate from soils into surface water and availability of adequate soil moisture, other nutrients

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and m anagem ent practices needed to attain high cheap, out-of-patent, locally produced chemicals. yields. Even modest increases in nitrogen fertilizer Future pesticide consum ption is likely to grow application could cause problems when yield growth m ore rapidly in developing countries than in stagnates, leading to nutrient-use inefficiencies and developed ones (M orrod, 1995), although the severe pollution. Four difficulties arise here. First, introduction and spread of new pesticides may these losses can occur at N application rates below occur m ore rapidly in the latter. T he environ the economic optim um , since current fertilizer m ental implications of this growth are difficult to prices do not include the cost of environm ental assess. For exam ple, application rates per hectare externalities (Pretty et a l, 2001). Second, maxi have gone down, but the new pesticides are biolog mizing the efficiency of N use is complex and diffi ically m ore active. Im proved screening m ethods cult (Goulding, 2000). Third, it may take many years for pesticide safety and environm ental health legis for improvements in fertilizer-use efficiency to result lation have helped to reduce the m amm alian toxi in reductions in nitrate losses and decades for city of pesticides and to assess other potential groundwaters to recover from nitrate contam ina environm ental dam age. O n the other hand, the tion. Fourth, the situation could be particularly adoption of im proved application techniques has serious for the production of vegetables, because not progressed sufficiently in the past decade, they are often grown in or close to urban areas so particularly in the case of sprayers, so that a high that there is fairly direct contamination of the proportion of pesticide still fails to reach the target drinking-water sources for large num bers of people. plant or organism (Backmann, 1997). This situa Water pollution arising from agriculture has tion is unlikely to change in the near future. other dimensions. N itrogen and phosphate enrich Over the period to 2030 several factors could m ent of lakes, reservoirs and ponds can lead to create significant breaks from recent trends in eutrophication, resulting in high fish mortality and pesticide use, and could reduce pesticide contam i algae blooms. This is im portant because of the nation of groundw ater and surface water, soil and growing im portance of aquaculture (Chapter 7). food products. Developed countries are increas Algae blooms release toxins that are poisonous to ingly using taxes and regulatory m easures to fish and humans. T he hum an risks are a growing reduce pesticide use (DME, 1999; DETR, 1999). problem in some developed countries and poten T he rapid growth in dem and for organically grown tially even m ore serious in w arm er developing food will continue to reduce the use of pesticides. countries with m ore intense sunshine (Gross, 1998). Research in “sm art” pesticides using advances in Further intensification of fertilizer use may also biotechnology, knowledge of insect horm ones and add to the w idespread problem of soil acidification insight into the ecological basis of pest control, etc. (Scherr, 1999). A combination of improved nutrient is likely to result in safer control m ethods within m anagem ent and lim ing could limit this but the next decade or so (Thomas, 1998). T here will am m onia emissions from livestock and nitrogen be further developm ent of IPM for crops other fertilizers, discussed above, also add to soil acidifi than rice, which should help to reduce the use of cation th rough acid rain. T he conjunction is insecticides and, to a lesser extent, fungicides and causing serious ecosystem dam age in some devel herbicides (Yudelman, Ratta and Nygaard, 1998). oped countries, and this could also occur in devel However, shortages of farm labour, the reduced oping countries, particularly in East Asia with the use of flood irrigation for rice and the spread of rise of industrial-scale pig and poultry production. m inim al tillage systems could lead to m ajor increases in the use of herbicides and herbicide- Pesticide use has increased resistant crops. considerably over the past 35 years. Recent regional growth rates have ranged between 4.0 and Water pollution 5.4 percent (Yudelman, Ratta and Nygaard, 1998). also arises from intensive dairying and from the This has led to serious water pollution in OECD landless rearing of pigs and poultry, particularly in countries (OECD, 2001a). Pesticide pollution is East Asia. H ere peri-urban industrial-scale pig and now appearing in developing countries as well, poultry production has caused serious environ exacerbated in some instances by the availability of m ental dam age, especially water pollution, unp ar

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alleled in the industrialized w orld (de H aan, the destruction of the habitats of beneficial insects Steinfeld and Blackburn, 1998). T he problem and birds that help to keep crop pest populations arises from discharges or run off of nitrogen and under control, and to other losses in biodiversity. other nutrients into surface waters because of bad However, assessment of these losses in developing waste m anagem ent and from environm ental countries is severely limited by lack of data on quan impacts of feed and fodder production (Hendy, titative and qualitative changes in pesticide use, live Nolan and Leng, 1995; de H aan, Steinfeld and stock densities and wildlife populations. Blackburn, 1998). In the m edium term these prob T he effects of agriculture on non-agricultural lems seem bound to increase, although the techno biodiversity can be positive as well as negative, logical m eans of overcom ing them are neither depen ding upon the situation. In the U nited com plex nor very costly. K ingdom , for exam ple, the intensification of pastoral systems has been an im portant factor behind the decline in bird populations. O n the other hand, in Norway aro und half of the th reat ened species depen d on agricultural landscapes In the main, recent land cover changes have and therefore the conservation of biodiversity is reduced the spatial distribution of species rather closely related to the protection of such landscapes than causing their extinction, although this has (Danmark, 1998), including grazing systems that happened and will continue to happen on a m ore prevent pastures from reverting to scrub or w ood limited scale. T he loss of wild relatives of crops and land. of native crop varieties that are better adapted to Nonetheless, intensification will have a major unfavourable or changing environm ental condi positive impact by reducing the need to convert new tions could be particularly serious for crop intro land to agriculture. CGIAR has estimated that land duction or breeding program m es to adapt to saved through yield gains over the past 30 years climate change. from CGIAR research on seven major crops is equiv T he projections of land cover and land use alent to 230-340 million ha of forest and grassland change do not explicitly exam ine changes in biodi that would have been converted to cropland in the versity,4 but they do provide some proxy indica absence of these gains (Nelson and Mareida, 2001). tors. These can help in assessing how the impacts of T heir estim ate excludes the land savings that agriculture on biodiversity m ight evolve over the stem m ed from research on other crops, from projection period. T he focus of this chapter is on national and private research systems and from the environm ental and ecosystem impacts of the farm ers’ own research and development. Some esti changes, rather than on plant genetic resource mates of land savings resulting from all past research issues. Pressures on non-agricultural biodiversity efforts and agricultural intensification am ount to from land clearance and the inappropriate use of m ore than 400 million ha (Goklany, 1999). agrochemicals may in future grow m ore slowly Agriculture’s main impacts on wild biodiversity because of the increase in protected areas and land fall into four groups. First, there is the loss of natural restoration. wildlife habitat caused by the expansion of agricul However, there will be increasing pressures on ture. This has been a major force in the past, and biodiversity within agricultural production systems. will continue in the future, although m uch m ore This will stem prim arily from the intensification of slowly. T he projections of C hapter 4 suggest that an production. Together with economic forces, intensi additional 120 million ha of arable land will be fication will lead to farm and field consolidation; required over the next 30 years. Inevitably these will reduction of field margins; clearance and levelling involve a reduction in the area of natural forests, of adjacent wastelands so that they can be culti wetlands and so on, with attendant loss of species. vated; further expansion in the use of m odern vari Second, there is the general decline in species eties; greater use of pesticides; and higher stocking richness in m anaged forests, pastures and field rates for grazing animals. These trends can lead to m argins, and the red uction of wild genetic

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resources related to dom esticated crops and live The im pact o f livestock production on biodiver stock. T h ere are com prehensive and w ell-m ain sity takes two m ain forms: high grazing pressures tained ex situ germ plasm stocks for the m ajor crops, and reseeding o f pastures. G razing pressures are an d gen e tran sfer an d o th e r advanced plant likely to rise with tim e in som e areas, particularly b reeding tools have opened up new possibilities for w here m arketing infrastructure is weak and there genetic im provem ent. N evertheless, these losses in are few alternative livelihoods, even though there is the wild could be serious for future crop and a continuing shift to lim ited or zero grazing such as livestock breeding. T hey cannot be quantified at feedlots and stall-feeding systems. In o th er areas, present, although advances in m olecular biology however, the area o f grazing land and pastures will may provide the tools needed for m ore robust probably decline as the m ore m arginal areas are m onitoring. abandoned. Som e pastures will be converted into T h ird , there is the reduction of wild species, cropland and urban and industrial land. Such including m icro-organism s, which help to sustain land use changes can be appreciable. In w estern food an d agricultural production, for exam ple E urope, for exam ple, the area ofm eadow s and throu g h soil nutrient recycling, pest control and pastures declined by 10 percent betw een 1970 and pollination of flowering crops. This can be regarded 1988 (OECD, 1991). T his decline was associated as dam age to the life support system for agriculture, with the rise in stocking rates. O n rough pastures given the vital role some of these species play in soil these com m only increased by 50 to 100 percent fertility m aintenance through nitrogen and carbon between 1970 and 1990 (Pain, Hill and McCracken, cycling. Such losses are of increasing im portance 1997) and they have risen even m ore on im proved with the shift to integrated farm ing and the grow ing pastures. Such increases in stocking rates have em phasis on I PM. The intensive use of m ineral been linked to the loss o f certain bird species from fertilizers is known to change soil m icrobe p opula large areas of the U nited K ingdom and E urope tions (Paoletti, 1997), but does not ap p ear to disrupt an d low er popu latio n s elsew here (Pain an dnu trien t recycling. Intensive grazing lowers plant Pienkowski, 1996). Sim ilar stocking rate increases species richness in pastures but the long-term are projected for parts o f sub-Saharan Africa and consequences o f this are not known. In developed Asia, so they are also likely to suffer losses in bird countries, loss o f insect-eating bird species, as a and o th er wildlife populations. It is also likely that result of reduction or removal of field m argins or there will be a shift to m ore intensive pasture pesticide use, has been firmly linked with increases systems. T his will most probably involve some in crop pest dam age. This problem may arise reseeding of natural m eadows, and hence loss of increasingly in developing countries. native grassland plants. Intensification o f pastures Lastly, there is the reduction in wild species that norm ally also involves the application o f high levels depend for habitat, food, etc. on agriculture and the of organic or m ineral fertilizers, leading to nitrate landscapes it m aintains -the habitats, flora and or phosphate loss to w ater systems. The experience fauna that would not exist without agriculture. of the developed countries indicates that these Richly diverse chalk grasslands, for exam ple, would im pacts can be substantial. revert to scrub or w oodland w ithout grazing pres sures, with the loss of ground-nesting bird species, butterflies and herbaceous plants. T he reduction of wild species is most apparent in those EU countries that have lost large areas of hedges, ditches, shrubs A griculture plays a significant role in the an th ro and trees through field and farm consolidation. pogenic p erturbation o f several biogeochem ical Losses have also arisen from extensive use of insec cycles, notably the nitrogen, phosphate and sulphur ticide and herbicide sprays with consequent spray cycles. In the nitrogen (N) cycle, am m onia and drift on to field m argins and oth er adjacent ecolog nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture are signifi ical niches. Increased stocking rates on extensive cant, but there is also perturbation of N fixation. pastoral systems have led to a decline in birds that T he m anufacture of nitrogenous fertilizers, burning either nest on such land or are predators of rodents, of fossil fuels and cultivation o f legum inous etc. living on these lands. crops have resulted in anthropogenic N fixation

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exceeding natural N fixation since about 1980, by an T he EU and

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Second, even where the above m easures are in place, environm ental problem s can arise from the W ater scarcity and accum ulation of pesticide residues along the food intersectoral com petition for water are m ajor prob chain, in soils and in water, e.g. the buildup of lems. Reduced groundw ater recharge because of atrazine in water supplies in Europe and the deforestation and soil degradation is also an im por United States. T here m ust be com prehensive and tant issue. T he most serious direct environm ental precise m onitoring systems to give early w arning of problem is salinization. T hree main actions could residue buildup. T he international sharing of be used to limit salinization: (i) greater investm ent inform ation, e.g. through the Codex Alimentarius, in better drainage and distribution canals, even provides valuable support to developing countries though planners have been slow to act on this that lack adequate m onitoring and testing facilities. option in the past; (ii) better water m anagem ent, Moreover, in the context of consum er safety and for exam ple through the increasing involvement of the W TO agreem ents, rigorous procedures must farm ers in water users’ associations and similar be in place to ensure food safety and enable agri bodies; and (iii) stronger economic incentives for cultural exports. water conservation, which are growing as govern T hird, pest control measures should be imple m ents increasingly im plem ent w ater-pricing poli m ented in a strategic framework for IPM (Chapter cies and as com petition from other sectors drives 11), which aims to avoid or minimize the use of pesti up the price. cides. In recent years a num ber of developed coun tries have concluded that even with the above While the techno measures some farmers are still applying too much logical approaches described above are m easures to pesticide, or pesticide accumulation in the environ reduce the negative effects of conventional agricul m ent has not been reduced. They have decided, ture on the environm ent, organic agriculture (for therefore, to use economic as well as regulatory environm ental reasons) does not use any industrial measures, and to impose pollution taxes on pesti fertilizer or pesticide inputs at all. T he use of such cides so as to create economic incentives to reduce inputs commonly has negative effects on the envi their use. Such taxes appear to be a valid option for ronm ent; however, their non-use does not neces a wider range of countries and situations, although it sarily make agricultural production sustainable. may be some time before many developing countries Soil m ining and erosion, for exam ple, can be prob have the institutional capacity to implement them. lems in organic agriculture. Organic farm ing can also cause serious air and water pollution -for exam ple, the overuse of m anure or badly m anaged T he biological, environm ental and applications can increase am m onia in the air and economic advantages of NT/CA have been described nitrate in groundwater. in Chapter 11. The wider adoption of NT/CA The rapid expansion of organic production depends on raising awareness among politicians and during the past decade has already made an appre farmers of the benefits of conservation agriculture. ciable contribution to pollution reduction and agri Government policies need to be directed towards cultural sustainability in Europe (FAO/COAG, 1999). creating the appropriate conditions for it's uptake. T hree aspects need to be clarified. First, badly Farmers need to see how it meets their specific managed organic agriculture can result in some of needs. The lessons learned from the farmer-to-the same pollution problems that arise from conven farm er training approach used successfully for IPM tional agriculture, but not in others such as those in Asia could be of help. For example, Brazilian associated with the use of industrial inputs and farmers who have benefited greatly from NT/CA production systems described in the preceding could share their experience with farmers in Africa sections. Second, although the rate of expansion has and help them to adapt the technique to their own been fast, the proportion of agricultural land conditions. Greater national research and develop involved is small. C urrent policies in many EU coun m ent efforts and international assistance will be tries aim at a considerable increase in the agricultural needed to develop the technique for other agricul land under organic farming (see Chapter 11). Third, tural environments and production systems. most of the pressure for the switch to organic farming is in the developed countries (FAO/COAG, 1999).

Improving water management.

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T he environm ental and economic benefits of alone to achieve adequate livestock waste m anage organic farm ing can be increased in a num ber of m ent; and im proved donor coordination and envi ways. These include introduction of policies that ronm ental impact assessment (EIA) to ensure that bring prices of industrial inputs in line with their international projects have adequate provision for full econom ic costs, including externalities; sound livestock waste m anagem ent. im provem ents in product standards, certification and labelling to give consum ers confidence that they are buying genuine organic foods (FAO, 12.5 Physical and economic 1999f); establishment of an internationally agreed accreditation mechanism, particularly procedures trade-offs to gain in ternational equivalence of organic Earlier sections have shown that agriculture is an product standards; greater governm ent assistance industry with substantial environm ental conse to farm ers wishing to switch to organic farming; quences upstream and dow nstream as well as regulations to enforce or encourage the use of onfarm. It is evident that crop production and food organic farm ing as a means of overcom ing or security cannot be achieved at zero environm ental reducing problem s such as the buildup of nitrate in cost. T he issue therefore is w hether environm ental groundw ater; increased research to widen the costs can be minimized so that future food security range of organic agricultural techniques; im prove is not at risk. m ents in the availability of or access to organic T he trade-offs involved are multidimensional. inputs, e.g. GMO-free seed, rock phosphate and They vary over time and space, between different m anure; and capacity building in extension environm ental goods and services, and between systems, farm ers’ cooperatives and national accred different developm ental goals. It is for society to itation bodies to rem ove barriers to the expansion decide which trade-offs are acceptable and which of organic farming, particularly in extension serv ones can be mimimized, but this raises the question ices that still prom ote approaches centred on the of whose society, and who in society should decide. intensive use of m ineral fertilizers and pesticides. A few examples of the various types of trade-offs are m entioned below. The Between countries and regions. T he increasing

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and steep slopes, but it separates arable and live security but im m ediate food needs take priority stock production. This limits or prevents the (M ortim ore and Adams, 2001). retu rn of livestock m anure to cropland, which is Greater intensification of cropland use versus greater often vital in raising crop yields and m aintaining loss of biodiversity and GHG emissions from deforesta soil fertility. Hence some countries, notably the tion. T he introduction of new technologies that N etherlan ds, have in tro d u ced regulations on lead to higher yields or return s on existing land stocking rates or m anure recycling. Moreover, the reduces the need for further land developm ent. production of large quantities of feedgrain and This can save a considerable am ount of forest and fodder crops can lead to serious soil erosion, and rangeland (Nelson and M areida, 2001) and even to environm ental problem s stem m ing from fertil tually allow m arginal cropland to be taken out of izer and pesticide use. T he higher stocking rates of production and used for m ore sustainable systems, intensive systems lead to loss of biodiversity from e.g. agroforestry, forestry, pastures and recreation. tram p lin g and reseeding (Pain, Hill and However, even und er well-m anaged sustainable M cCracken, 1997), and m ore concentrated em is sions from m anure and urine, causing ecosystem systems such as IPNS and IPM, intensification can lead to m ore fertilizer and pesticide pollution acidification locally and GHG accum ulation glob (Goulding, 2000), greater GHG emissions from ally (Bouwman et al., 1997). Over time within countries. T he European experi nitrogen fertilizer and loss of biodiversity on inten sively grazed pastures. ence shows how forest clearance for food produc Reduction of soil erosion and water pollution versus tion can buy tim e while technology and greater pesticide use. NT/CA, m inim um tillage and international trade catch up with population related approaches to land m anagem ent have growth, allowing marginal cropland eventually to be reforested (Norse, 1988). Most European coun m ultiple environm ental and farm income benefits, yet may require greater use of herbicides. However, tries converted forests to cropland prior to the initial fears that NT/CA would lead to greater use of application of m ineral fertilizers and m odern crop herbicides have not been fully confirmed, as herbi breeding techniques. However, the loss of biodiver cide use can be reduced or elim inated in systems sity from such deforestation may be perm anent, following all the principles of NT/CA, once a new and it may be impossible to re-establish the original forest ecosystem. agro-ecosystem equilibrium has been established. Using green cover crops to reduce nitrate leaching Over space and time. Erosion from steep slopes during the autum n and winter may increase carry th at are difficult to cultivate and inherently over of weeds, pests and diseases and lead to greater unstable is commonly followed by the redeposition pesticide use. of sediments in reservoirs, in river valleys and estu The potential environmental benefits versus risks of aries up to 1 000 km or m ore away. T he result with GM crops. As discussed in Chapter 11, GM crops can time is the creation of flat lands that are easy to have a num ber of environm ental benefits such as (i) cultivate. In South and East Asia such lands have reduced need for pesticides, particularly insecti been able to sustain crop production for thousands cides (e.g. Bt maize and cotton) and herbicides (e.g. of years. O n the other hand, by reducing the H t soybeans), although these gains are not neces storage capacity of drainage systems this erosion sarily perm anent as pests can overcome the resist can contribute to severe flooding, loss of hum an life ance of GM crops; (ii) lower pressures for cropland and serious economic losses (FAO, 1999g), and it may be impossible to restore eroded slopes to their developm ent and deforestation because of higher original vegetation. yields from existing land; and (iii) increased oppor tunities to take marginal land out of production for Between food security and the environment. Poor farm ers in various parts of the world are m ining set-aside or to cultivate some crops less intensively. soil nutrients because they lack access to sufficient T he technologies involved can produce cultivars organic m anure or m ineral fertilizer (Bremen, that can tolerate saline soils and thereby help to G root and van Keulen, 2001). They know that reclaim degraded land. On the other hand, there th eir land use practices cause environm ental are a num ber of possible environm ental impacts dam age that may ultimately endanger future food and risks, such as the overuse of herbicides with herbicide-tolerant varieties and accumulation of

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herbicides in drinking-w ater sources; herbicide drift from cropped areas, killing plants in field 12.6 Concluding remarks margins, and hence leading to the death of insects It has been argued that during the next decades and birds in or dependent on field margins; death environm ental trade-offs will be m ore difficult than of beneficial insects feeding on GM crops; and in the last few decades, with fewer win-win situa crossing of GM crops with wild relatives and partic tions an d m ore obvious losers than w inners ularly with related weed species, e.g. red rice, (OECD, 2001a). This is not necessarily the case for possibly leading to the developm ent of herbicide-agriculture in m any developing countries if m arket resistant weeds. signals are corrected so that they include the value T he most vocal concerns about agricultural of environm ental goods, services and costs; give pollution and ecosystem dam age tend to come from farm ers everywhere the incentive to produce in a environm entalists in developed countries. But in a sustainable way; overcome the negative impacts of num ber of respects an im proved environm ent is intensive production technologies; give resource-a luxury good that these countries can now afford. poor farm ers the support they need to react to In earlier tim es they had different priorities environm ental and m arket signals (M ortim ore and (Alexandratos, 1995). Until the 1960s, when most Adams, 2001); and N orth and South work together people w ere concerned with im proving their to rem ove pro d u ctio n and trad e distortions incom es, diversifying their diets and general (McCalla, 2001). welfare, protection of the environm ent was a low T here are m any Opportunities for placing agri priority for all but a small minority (Reich, 1970; culture on a m ore sustainable path over the next Nicholson, 1976), and some serious environm ental decades, with benefits for both farm ers and problem s arose. Since then income growth, educa consumers. For exam ple, m easures resulting in tion and better understanding of the environm ental higher nitrogen fertilizer-use efficiency and IPM consequences of different agricultural practices red uce pro d u ctio n costs for the farm er and and lifestyles have led to a growing consensus provide safer food, and at the same time they that governm ents should do m ore to protect the are cheaper than drinking-w ater treatm ent in environm ent and that the public should pay m ore reducing nitrate and pesticide residues. for environm ental protection and food safety. F uture agro-environm ental im pacts will be Industrial countries have the economic and shaped prim arily by two countervailing forces. technical capacity to introduce additional measures Environm ental pressures will tend to rise as a result to protect the environm ent, and can afford the of the continuing increase in dem and for food and higher food costs that may follow as a consequence agricultural products, mainly caused by population of these actions. In short, they are m ore able to pay and income growth. They will tend to be reduced for trade-offs between environm ent and develop by technological change and institutional responses m ent, although current actions seem unlikely to to environm ental degradation caused by agricul prevent some growth in agricultural pollution over ture. T he early im plem entation of available policy the next 20 years or so (OECD, 2001a). and technological responses could reduce negative Environm entalists and governm ent officials in agro-environm ental impacts or slow their growth, developing countries are no less aware of the nega and speed up the growth of positive impacts. tive environm ental consequences of agricultural Agricultural intensification is required for food growth. However, their responses are constrained security and for the conservation of tropical forests by inadequate finance for the necessary research, and wetlands. T he main priority is to decouple particularly in sub-Saharan Africa; lack of institu intensification from the environm ental degrada tions and support services that could raise aware tion caused by some current approaches to intensi ness of potential ways to minimize or eliminate fication, by reshaping institutional structures and trade-offs; and the need to avoid m easures that m arket signals. Research and farm ing practices raise food prices because a high proportion of m ust also be redirected towards greater use of people are unable to buy adequate food even at biological and ecological approaches to nutrient current prices. recycling, pest m anagem ent and land husbandry (including soil and water conservation).

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This decoupling has already started in some countries, but it will take time before it has ap p re increased agricultural production and reduced ciable effects. Hence agro-environm ental impacts pressures on the environm ent. Intensification of crop production on existing cropland reduces the in the nearer future will be largely a continuation or acceleration of present trends. In particular, pressure to deforest, but tends to increase water there will be a further slowdown in deforestation pollution by fertilizers and pesticides. Similarly, the and rangeland clearance for crop production. switch from extensive to intensive livestock lowers T hus the main quantitative impacts on the envi grazing dam age to rangelands but, for exam ple, ron m ent will stem from the intensification of may increase water pollution from poorly m anaged m anure storage. production on existing cropland, rather than from expansion of cropland. T here will be increasing On the other hand, intensification of pro duc pressure on some marginal lands, but progress in tion on the better lands allows the abandonm ent of research and better off-farm em ploym ent opportu erosion-prone marginal lands, and im provem ents nities seem likely to lead to the abandonm ent and in fertilizer-use efficiency and IPM together with natural recovery of some marginal lands in Asia the expansion of organic farm ing are projected to and Latin America. T here will also be m oderate slow down the growth in use of m ineral fertilizers increases in the area u nder irrigation. Drainage and pesticides. Similarly, the concentration of live developm ent and better irrigation water m anage stock into feedlots or stalls makes it m ore feasible to m ent will help to limit or reduce soil dam age from collect and recycle m anure and to use advanced waterlogging and salinization. Lastly, increased systems for water purification and biogas produc tion. intensification of production on existing arable land will have two main characteristics. T here will In an increasing num ber of situations the trade be enhanced use of precision farm ing and other offs are becom ing less serious. Thus, for exam ple, advanced technologies, for exam ple sophisticated NT/CA may reduce overall pesticide use; reduce plant breeding and controlled release of m ineral soil erosion, fossil energy inputs and dro ught fertilizers. And the growth of fertilizer and pesti vulnerability; and raise carbon sequestration, cide use will slow down because of regulatory meas natural soil nutrient recycling and farm incomes. ures and consum er dem and for organically grown Factors such as these lead to the overall conclusion produce. that agro-environm ental impacts need not be a T he focus of concern is likely to shift from the barrier to the projected production path because onfarm im pacts of physical land degradation they can be reduced considerably through the towards chemical and biological impacts, and from adoption of proven policies and technologies. onsite towards offsite and downstream impacts of It is one thing to project the potential for a air and water pollution. Soil erosion may be reversal or slowdown in the growth of agriculture’s reduced in im portant crop production areas by negative impacts on the environm ent. It is quite the projected shifts in technology. However, air another m atter to make such a future a reality. This and water pollution from m ineral fertilizers and will need a m ultidim ensional approach and the intensive livestock production will increase, with integration of environm ental concerns into all m ore widespread nitrate contam ination of water aspects of agricultural policy. Such actions were resources, eutrophication of surface waters and first proposed m ore than a decade ago (FAO, 1988) am m onia dam age to ecosystems. but are only now being pursued in a partial m anner T he slowing down of deforestation will reduce by some developed countries. Governments need to the rate of loss of biodiversity, but the intensifica exploit the com plem entary roles of regulatory, tion of cropland and pasture use seems likely to economic and technological measures. Actions are increase such losses. T he general picture for deser needed at the global, regional, national and local tification is less certain, but the abandonm ent or level. None of these actions will be easy, but the real reduced use of extensive semi-arid grazing lands achievements of some countries and local com m u should lower the risk of desertification. nities over the past 30 years in prom oting sustain T he overall pattern of future agro-environ able agricultural developm ent show what could be m ental impacts is one of trade-offs between achieved over the next 30 years, given m ore coherent efforts.

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CHAPTER Climate change and agriculture: physical and human dimensions

13.1 Introduction natural range (IPCC, 2001b). T he latest predic tions for the year 2100 are slightly higher than earlier ones and suggest that global average climate is changing in part as a result of hum an activities (IPCC, 2001b), and that the social and

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(IPCC, 2001c). H ere the next 50-100 years will see induced shifts in food production potential in widespread declines in the extent and potential currently food-insecure areas (IPCC, 2001a, productivity of cropland (Fischer et al., 2001) 2001b; Fischer et al., 2001). Thus, the m odest particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and southern impacts on aggregate food production proposed Europe (Parry, 2000; Parry et a i, 1999). Some of here are a reflection of the shorter time frame, the severest impacts seem likely to be in the rather than of any undue optimism about the currently food-insecure areas of sub-Saharan Africa longer-term situation. with the least ability to adapt to climate change or T he em ission of GHGs by agriculture is to com pensate for it through greater food imports. discussed in C hapter 12. In this chapter, four other A round the rising trend in average tem perature dimensions of the interaction between agriculture and rainfall, interannual and seasonal variation will and climate change will be considered. First, agri increase. This will result in m ore frequent and m ore culture's role as an im portant m oderator of climate intense extrem e events, and in greater crop and change through the sequestration of carbon in the livestock production losses. Climate variation is soil and in long-lived products, and through the already the major cause of year-to-year fluctuations growing of biofuels to replace fossil fuels. Second, in production in both developed and developing the positive and negative impacts of climate change countries, and of food insecurity in developing on agricultural production and on natural ecosys countries (FAO, 200If). For the period up to 2030, tems. T hird, the implications for food security. alterations in the patterns of extrem e events will Household and national incomes will generally be have much m ore serious consequences for chronic rising, allowing people to be less reliant on subsis and transitory food insecurity than shifts in the tence agriculture and m ore able to buy their food patterns of average tem perature and precipitation. needs, and allowing countries to com pensate for T here is evidence that extrem e events were already domestic food deficits through greater imports. becoming worse towards the end of the 1990s, and However, a significant num ber of countries and there is rising confidence in projections that they com m unities may continue to be bypassed by will increase in frequency and severity well before developm ent. Fourth, the clear need for changes to 2030 (Easterling et al., 2000; IPCC, 2001b, 2001c). agricultural policies and technologies which in the These extrem e events have a disproportionately short term could com bat climate variability and large impact on the poor because their crops, live natural resource degradation, bu t would also stock, homes, food stores and livelihoods are at risk reduce or avoid possible food security impacts of from floods and droughts and they have few or no future climate change, for exam ple, NT/CA (see savings to carry them through bad periods. Such C hapter 11). Such m easures have gained in im por impacts can be missed by GCMs operating at broad tance now that carbon sink projects will qualify for spatial and tem poral scales, since extrem e events credits und er the clean developm ent mechanism commonly result in short-term and relatively local (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. ized food shortages that are masked by shifts in national production stemming from norm al climate variability. This chapter is devoted prim arily to a review of 13.2 Agriculture as a moderator climate change and food security issues and inter of climate change actions. It examines how climate change may alter C hapter 12 (Section 12.3.1) discussed the im por the agriculture and food security outcom es tant role of agricultural activities as a driving force expected in the absence of climate change. T he for climate change through the emission of GHGs. chapter’s assessment of the possible impacts of At the same time there is a growing appreciation climate change on food security should be consid of agriculture’s positive contribution to climate ered in the context of the following limitations and change m itigation through carbon sequestration assumptions. T he time horizon of this study is and the substitution of biofuels for fossil fuels. 2030. This chapter therefore does not cover the These contributions are likely to be of growing 2050-2080 period during which the IPCC and economic and environm ental im portance in the others project increasingly serious climate-change-context of the Kyoto Protocol.

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In the past, use, for example reversion of cropland in indus attention has been focused on the role of forestry in trial countries to managed forests and pastures or carbon sequestration. This role will remain impor to natural ecosystems as part of permanent set-tant in the future (see Chapter 6). In addition, aside; changes in cropping patterns, e.g. biomass however, crop and livestock production can also cropping; adoption of NT/CA with improvements play a significant role through the sequestration of in tillage practices and residue management (see substantial amounts of carbon as soil organic matter Chapter 11); better soil fertility and water manage (SOM) derived from crop residues, manure and ment; and erosion control. All of these land better-managed grasslands. The additional benefits management changes are based on known tech of this sequestration will diminish with time. nologies and husbandry practices that have other Global estimates of the potential contribution of benefits, including improved soil moisture avail cropland to carbon sequestration are in the range ability to crops and higher yields, or reduced fossil of 450-610 million tonnes of carbon p.a. (equiva fuel use as in the case of NT systems. lent to some 1 640-2 220 million tonnes of carbon The crop production projections of this study, dioxide) for the next 20-30 years (GCSI, 1999). together with earlier FAO work on the biomass There is, however, considerable uncertainty about yield of different crops (FAO, 1978), give an esti the potential gains from improved crop and live mate of the biomass of crop residues left in the stock management practices (Lai and Bruce, 1999). field. Total global non-harvested residues (prima In the United States changes in cropping practices rily crop stalks and roots) for 15 of the most impor (particularly conservation tillage and crop residue tant crops were around 4.7 billion tonnes p.a. in management, improved cropping systems and land 1997/99 and are projected to rise to 7.4 billion restoration) could sequester about 140 million tonnes by 2030. Depending on the region, these tonnes of carbon p.a. -nearly 10 percent of total residues amount to between 2.4 and 6.2 tonnes per United States emissions of all GHGs (Lai et al., harvested hectare. These values are higher than 1999). United States and United Kingdom studies those used for other global estimations (Lai and show that permanent set-aside could sequester Bruce, 1999), but similar to those found in studies large amounts of carbon if it is forested or unman for Australia, Canada and the United States (Dalai aged (Cole et al., 1996; Cannell et a l , 1999). Thus and Mayer, 1986; Douglas etal., 1980; Voroney, van improved land management can enhance the role Veen and Paul, 1981). Under tropical conditions, of agricultural soils as a major sink for carbon residues can be much higher. Cowpeas, for dioxide (C 0 2) and as a compensating mechanism example, produce up to 24 tonnes of residues per for agriculture’s contribution to GHG emissions ha (Diels et a l , 1999). (Lai, Kimble and Follet, 1998) although it may be a There are significant crop and regional differ decade or more before cultivated land is trans ences in the proportion of crop residues that are formed from a net source to a net sink of carbon. left on the soil surface or incorporated in it. For Improved land management can therefore help most crops it is assumed that 25-50 percent of countries to meet their obligations under interna residues are returned to the soil as organic matter, tional agreements to reduce net emissions of and that half of this biomass is carbon. With these GHGs. Moreover, under the provisions of the CDM assumptions, gross carbon sequestration by the 15 of the Kyoto Protocol, international support for crops could rise from 620-1 240 million tonnes p.a. improved land management to sequester carbon to 960-1910 million tonnes p.a. by 2030 (Table could also further sustainable agriculture and rural 13.1). If this is scaled up to include the harvested development (SARD) by providing other environ area for the remaining crops, the global estimate mental and economic benefits (FAO, 2000c). The for 2030 rises to 1 170-2 330 million tonnes of latter include reduced soil erosion and nitrate carbon. Taking into account that these estimates leaching, greater rainfall infiltration, higher soil refer to gross carbon sequestration, they are fairly moisture levels and lower energy costs. close to other recent estimates (GCSI, 1999; Lai Many of the required technological and land and Bruce, 1999; Batjes, 1999). management changes could take place over the These estimates do not take account of the period to 2030. These could include shifts in land potential gains from NT/CA or from improved soil

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substitution of renewable biofuels for fossil fuels. but not western and central Europe (Hulm e et al., T he technological potential and environm ental 1999). Estimation of the impact of changes in benefits are clear, and some m odelling exercises precipitation is further complicated by the inter have projected large increases in the area under play of two effects: changes in precipitation and biofuel crops. Theun certain ty stem s from rises in water-use efficiency associated with the CO economic and political factors. For the foreseeable fertilization effect. future, the energy from biofuel crops will continue to be m ore expensive than that from fossil fuels. If, however, carbon taxes were imposed on fossil fuels so that their cost to consum ers included the Climate change will have a range of positive and external costs of their use, including the costs of negative impacts on agriculture. Up to 2030 the climate change, then biofuels would be m uch m ore greatest im pacts could com e from increased competitive. In addition, if m ore governm ents frequency and intensity of extrem e events. Climate introduced positive discrim ination for biofuels, variability is currently the dom inant cause of short then their production could expand rapidly and term fluctuation in rainfed agricultural production make a significant contribution by 2030. of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, and substan tial areas of other developing regions. T he most serious form is dro ught, when rainfall drops 13.3 Climate change impacts substantially below the long-term m ean or fails at on agriculture critical points in crop developm ent. In semi-arid and subhum id areas, these rainfall deficits can dram atically reduce crop yields and livestock num bers and productivity. Such fluctuations can be Global average tem peratures are projected to rise countered by investm ent in irrigation or by food by about 1°C by 2030 (i.e. well outside the natural im ports, but these options are not always open to range). H igher latitudes will warm m ore rapidly low-income countries or rem ote regions. Indeed, than lower ones, land areas will warm m ore the availability of water for irrigation may be rapidly than the oceans, and polar sea ice will reduced by the increased frequency and intensity decrease m ore in the Arctic than in the Antarctic. of droughts together with long-term changes in Consequently, average tem peratures in the higher surface water runoff or evapotranspiration, and latitudes may rise by 2°C, possibly double the this may reduce irrigated food production. increase in the tropics. Projected changes in Although semi-arid and subhum id areas are precipitation show even greater regional differ generally the ones given the most attention in ences, with m ajor grain-producing areas of South clim ate im pact studies, hum id areas are also America showing increases and parts of Central vulnerable to climate variability. They can suffer America and South Asia suffering from decreased from changes in the length of the growing season precipitation and higher soil m oisture deficits (Wilkie et al., 1999) and from extrem e events, (IPCC, 2001b). notably tropical cyclones causing dam age from Broadly speaking, climate change is projected high winds and floods. Such disasters are shorter-to increase global m ean precipitation and runoff by lived and m ore localized than those associated with about 1.5 to 3 percent by 2030 (IPCC, 2001b). droughts and other forms of climate variability and T here will be greater gains in the higher latitudes so fewer people may be affected. However, the and the equatorial region but potentially serious consequences for their food security can be equally reductions in the m iddle latitudes. Parts of Central severe. Not only do they lose current crops and America, South Asia, northern and southern Africa livestock, but in cases where perennial trees are lost and Europe could suffer appreciable falls in avail or spawning grounds seriously dam aged, they also able water resources. Moreover, there could be lose future crops and fish catches. They may lose significant subregional differences, e.g. northern th eir stored food, hom es and possessions, and southern Europe are projected to undergo including irrigation infrastructure, livestock and significant shifts in clim ate-change-induced runoff tools, so that the negative consequences on food

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security may be felt for several years after the as well as quantitative. In the East African high event. On the other hand, since these extrem e lands, higher tem peratures may result in land events are relatively localized, o th er crop-becom ing unsuitable for wheat but m ore suitable producing areas within the same country can often for other grains. T he effects on potential yields will provide the food needed in affected areas. follow the same pattern as land suitability, with R ecent research has suggested that some yield gains in m iddle to higher latitudes and losses impacts of climate change are occurring m ore in the lower latitudes. T here may be some gains in rapidly than previously anticipated (IPCC, 2001c). tropical highlands w here at present there are cold T he impacts will stem prim arily from: tem perature constraints. regional tem perature rises at high northern T he overall effects of climate-induced changes in latitudes and in the centre of some continents; land and crop suitability and yields are small increased heat stress to crops and livestock, e.g. com pared with those stemming from economic and higher night-time tem peratures, which could technological growth. By 2020 world cereal produc adversely affect grain form ation and other tion m ight be only about 0.5 percent less than what aspects of crop developm ent; it would have been in the absence of climate change possible decline in precipitation in some food-(IPCC, 2001c; Parry et al., 1999), although this insecure areas, such as southern Africa and the decline might be much greater by 2050 or later. The northern region of Latin America, although the largest regional reduction would be in Africa main impacts will occur after 2030; where cereal production is projected to decline by increased évapotranspiration rates caused by 2-3 percent. This potential fall could be com pen higher tem peratures, with lowering of soil mois sated by a relatively small increase in yields or ture levels; imports. But this regional picture hides im portant concentration of rainfall into a smaller num ber subregional differences. Parts of central and of rainy events with increases in the num ber of northern Africa may experience small increases in days with heavy rain, increasing erosion and cereal yields. flood risks -a trend that is already apparent T he rise in atmospheric concentrations of carbon (Easterling et al., 2000); dioxide not only drives global warming but can also changes in seasonal distribution of rainfall, with be a positive factor in tree and crop growth and less falling in the main crop growing season; biomass production. It stimulates photosynthesis sea level rise, aggravated by subsidence in parts (the so-called C02 fertilizer effect) and improves of some densely populated flood-prone coun water-use efficiency (Bazzaz and Sombroek, 1996). tries; Up to 2030 this effect could compensate for much or food production and supply disruption through all of the yield reduction coming from tem perature m ore frequent and severe extrem e events. and rainfall changes. Recent work for the United States suggests that the benefits from C02-induced These impacts fall into three main groups, i.e. gains in water-use efficiency could continue until direct and indirect impacts of climate change per se, 2095 (Rosenberg et al., 2001). and impacts from enhanced climate variation (extrem e events), though with a degree of overlap. As with crop production, C02 fertilization

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tem peratures, with some loss of biodiversity. if no action is taken (O’Brien et al., 2000). In middle However, dieback of tropical forests, i.e. progressive and southern latitudes coral bleaching and destruc death from environm ental or pest causes, could be a tion through higher water tem peratures could concern in parts of northern South America and damage im portant fish breeding grounds. central southern Africa (Hadley Centre, 1999). Some grasslands in developing countries

13.3.4 Direct impacts -sea level rise

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Even without climate change, population growth and urbanization will increase the num ber of people expand their range north. Although control meas at risk from coastal flooding, possibly from about ures are known for these diseases there will still be 200 million in 1990 to nearly 500 million by 2030 some yield loss and associated production input and (Nicholls, Hoozemans and M archand, 1999). Sea environm ental costs. However, this is not just an level rise alone will not raise this num ber substan issue for tem perate areas. In subtropical Australia tially by 2030, but other expected developments, tem perature rises up to 2 °C could favour the spread involving serious interactions between river flooding of the Queensland fruit fly and force production to and sea level rise, could do so. These include greater shift substantially southwards (Sutherst, Collyer and Yonow, 1999). river runoff because of increased precipitation inland, reduction of river width through siltation The im portant changes in pest dynamics are and urban and industrial development, and an increases in pest carryover (particularly overwin increase in storm surges penetrating further inland tering in tem perate regions) and population (Arnell, 1999). dynamics, since the life cycles of some major pests are extrem ely dep en d en t upon tem peratu re (Gommes and Fresco, 1998). H igher tem peratures may foster larger pest populations, and may extend Indirect impacts operate primarily through effects the reach of insect carriers of plant viruses, as in the on resource availability, notably water resources, and case of aphids carrying cereal viruses, which are on ecosystems as they respond to shifts in tem pera currently held in check by low winter or night ture and precipitation; and through the loss of tem peratures. No attem pt has been m ade to quan biodiversity, although the latter will have little tify these losses but they could be appreciable in impact by 2030. terms of lower yields and higher production costs. Large changes are predicted in the availability of Finally, greater tem perature extrem es seem water resources because of reductions in runoff and likely to give rise to higher wind speeds, and there groundw ater recharge. Substantial decreases are may be increases in the occurrence of hurricanes. projected for Australia, India, southern Africa, the This will result in greater mechanical damage to soil, Near East/North Africa, much of Latin America and plants and animals; impacts on plant growth from parts of Europe (Hadley Centre, 1999). T he main greater wind erosion and sandblast damage; and decrease will be after 2030 but there could be nega drowning of livestock. Natural resource m anage tive effects on irrigation in the shorter term . m ent decisions, both on the farm and at national Moreover, the greater frequency of sum m er level, could reduce or intensify the impacts of these droughts in the interior of mid-latitude continents factors on food security. For example, concerted could raise the incidence of wildfires. efforts to prom ote IPM could lessen the impact of T here will be changes in the distribution and pest and disease outbreaks. Conversely, poor land dynamics of m ajor pests. Although only small m anagem ent practices and inadequate protection average tem perature changes are projected to 2030, for the diversity and stability of ecosystems could they are nonetheless large enough to bring about aggravate soil erosion and other dam age.1 substantial shifts. In addition, fewer cold waves and frost days could extend the range of some pests and disease vectors, and favour the more rapid buildup 13.4 Implications of climate change of their populations to dam aging levels. for food security Much of central and northern Europe could become more vulnerable to im portant pests and diseases such as Colorado beetle of potatoes and Karnal bunt of wheat (Baker et a l, 1999) as they Up to 2030 the impact of climate change on global food production may be small, within the range

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that norm al carryover stocks, food aid and interna from production by shifts in tem perature and rain tional trade can accommodate. D uring the 1992/93 fall; people’s access to food by lowering their drought in southern Africa, for exam ple, crop incomes from coastal fishing because of dam age production in some countries was reduced by as to fish spawning areas from sea level; or lowering m uch as 50 percent. Yet there was no famine (Chen a country’s foreign exchange earnings by the and Kates, 1996), and the negative food security im pacts were relatively short-lived, although destruction of its export crops because of the rising frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. serious for some communities. National and inter national action was able to limit the increase in the In food-insecure countries, there is often a large num bers of undernourished. Nonetheless, Parry seasonal as well as interannual variation in the et al. (1999) consider that the 2-3 percent reduction ability of people to grow or purchase food. In parts of Africa, there is the so-called “hungry season” in African cereal production they project for 2020 is sufficient to raise the num bers at risk from prior to the new harvest, when grain prices tend to hunger by some 10 million people. rise substantially as stocks fall and lead to tem po However, food security depends m ore on socio rary food insecurity. Such features are lost in the economic conditions than on agroclimatic ones, annual or seasonal averages of most analyses of and on access to food rather than the production long-term food production and climate change or physical availability of food (FAO, 2001c; Smith, impacts on agriculture, but they are im portant in El Obeid and Jensen, 2000). T herefore, the impli determ ining people’s ability to purchase food. cations of climate change for food security are T here is also the question of spatial variation of m ore com plex than the relations used by most of climate impacts, and the level of countries' ability or inability to exploit this to overcome local food the current impact assessments. Future food secu rity will be determ ined largely by the interplay of a production deficits. Inability generally stems from num ber of factors such as political and socio weaknesses in in frastru ctu re or institutions, economic stability, technological progress, agricul although it is reasonable to project im provem ents tural policies, growth of per capita and national in these respects over the next 30 years. These incomes, poverty reduction, w omen’s education, features are not captured in climate impact assess drinking-w ater quality (Smith and H addad, 2001), m ent models, yet they are very im portant since and increased climate variation. quite large negative impacts on production from It is im portant to be clear about the respective climate change will not necessarily result in dim in roles and relative contributions to food security of ished food security. Large countries such as India these factors, and how they interact. For exam ple, and China contain a range of agroclimatic situa poverty is a m ajor factor in food insecurity (FAO, tions, and droughts and floods in one area can be 2001a), and urbanization can play an im portant com pensated by production from unaffected areas role in im proving physical access to food during and carryover stocks. Thus, when parts of no rth serious droughts, although there are a num ber of east and central China were seriously flooded in positive and negative factors involved (FAO, 1998, local food production losses were readily 2000d). Urban wages are generally above rural replaced by food from elsewhere. In countries in wages, but urban food and housing costs can be which agriculture is a small proportion of GDP, any higher, so actual food purchasing pow er in urban food deficits from extrem e events can normally be areas m ight in some cases be lower. Up to 2030 or covered by im ports, and by 2030 it is expected that even 2050, projected growth in incomes, urbaniza m ore countries will be in a position to com pensate tion and crop production for developing countries for climate change impacts on dom estic food are likely to have a m uch greater impact on food production by im ports from elsewhere. security than the effect of climate change in reducing average cereal yields or the area suitable for grain production (Fischer et al., 2001). However, there will be problem s arising from increased climate variability. Climate change may Given the above, it is necessary to exam ine food affect, for exam ple, the physical availability of food security in the context of the future agricultural and wider economic situation, which is likely to be

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quite different from today’s in anumb er of respects. One only has to look back 30 years to see change. T he increasing role of hom e rem ittances in the need for this. For exam ple, in the 1970s raising the food purchasing power of the rural B angladesh was being classified as incapable of poor has reduced seasonal and long-term food functioning pro perly and with little hope of insecurity. This has been particularly the case in survival, and South Asia, particularly India, was sub-Saharan Africa, w here 20-50 percent of rural considered to be the most food-insecure region, incom es now com m only com e from off-farm whereas sub-Saharan Africa was thought to have sources, and increasing am ounts of food are better food prospects (IFPRI, 1977). In reality, purchased rath er than hom e produced (FAO, d uring the last decades sound agricultural policies, 1998d; R eardon, M atlon and Delgado, 1994; investm ent in irrigation, etc. have enabled UNSO, 1994; Turner, 2000). This situation is likely Bangladesh and India to overcom e their large to continue for the next 30 years. Provided govern food production deficits, whereas sub-Saharan m ent policies and infrastructural im provem ents Africa suffered from poor agricultural perform allow food im ports to flow readily to drought-ance and prolonged food shortages for m uch of affected and other natural disaster areas, their food the same period. security situation will become less dependent on Looking ahead 30 years, a num ber of today’s local production. Fewer people will be vulnerable, food-insecure countries seem likely to have over as long as prices do not go up (although this is come their food production or food access prob unlikely, as discussed in Section 13.4.5). lems, with m uch of the rem aining food security problem concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (see hapter 2). Given the relatively high economic growth projected for most Latin American and Asian countries, they should be able to overcome Cereal yields play a key role in the food security of any negative impacts of climate change on food the poor. Recent estimates suggest that, relative to p ro duction by increasing food im ports. This the no climate change situation, yields could dem onstrates that it is not enough to assess the change by -5 to +2.5 percent depending on the impacts of climate change on domestic production region (Table 13.2). In many but not all countries it in food-insecure countries. O ne also needs to (i) may be possible to overcome this by expanding assess climate change impacts on foreign exchange cultivated land, because there are still substantial earnings; (ii) determ ine the ability of food-surplus suitable areas that could be brought into cultivation countries to increase their commercial exports or (Chapter 4). Furtherm ore, very small and quite food aid; and (iii) analyse how the incomes of the feasible annual im provem ents in yields could poor will be affected by climate change. com pensate for a potential 5 percent yield reduc No m atter how the clim ate changes, any tion from climate change (Chapters 4 and 11), impacts will be on a food security situation very although in the regions facing the most negative different from the present. T he structure of most potential impacts, yield increases were hard to developing economies will have shifted closer to realize in the past. that of today’s developed countries. Food produc T he regions and countries where food security tion will have changed in response to new tech is most at risk from sea level rise include South nologies and changes in com parative advantage. Asia, parts of West and East Africa, and the island Food consum ption and food security will have states of the Caribbean and Indian and Pacific changed because of shifts in consum er preferences Oceans. They include deltaic areas that are difficult and higher per capita incomes. and costly to protect, yet play an im portant role in Economic growth in non-agricultural sectors food production, e.g. in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and an increase in urbanization and non-agricul Egypt, India, T hailand and Viet Nam. T he tural em ploym ent will make people's incomes less concerns for food security are particularly great dependent on agriculture. People may have easier where farm sizes are already too small to provide and m ore reliable access to food during extrem e adequate subsistence and w here conversion of events and thus become less vulnerable to climate uplands to food production cannot com pensate for the loss of coastal land. A num ber of the areas at

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of the natural resources they have to produce food. pro duction was quite small because of good Consequently, any impact of climate change on harvests in other areas or seasons. land and water resources, on agricultural and non-Finally, it is im portant to consider how policy agricultural livelihoods, and on the prices of food responses to climate change could affect livelihoods or of other agricultural com m odities sold to and incom es. T his aspect could becom e of purchase food could have an im portant impact on increasing im portance through the CDM and food security. With the possible exception of sub-efforts to substitute fossil fuels by renewable ones, Saharan Africa, it seems doubtful that climate opening up new opportunities for job creation and change will have an appreciable impact on agricul income im provem ents. First, carbon sequestration tural livelihoods and incomes over the period to and trading in carbon emission perm its could 2030. T he wide range of domestic and interna improve the overall sustainability of agriculture tional factors governing national econom ic (see Section 13.2). They could raise farm incomes perform ance could swamp any small effects and create new agricultural livelihoods. T here resulting from climate change. could be growing com petition for land and labour However, climate change will have some adverse resources in some areas between biofuel produc effects on incomes and income distribution. A tion, carbon m itigation activities and food produc n um ber of groups are particularly vulnerable, tion, but such impacts are likely to be small over the namely: low-income groups in drought-prone areas next 20-30 years. Second, new non-fossil energy with poor food distribution infrastructure; low- to systems, particularly wind power, could provide medium-income groups in flood-prone areas who m arginal areas such as the slope lands of southwest may lose stored food and possessions; farmers India with new livelihoods and lower energy prices whose land is submerged or dam aged by sea level for rural electrification. rise or saltwater intrusions; fishers who suffer falling catches from shifts in ocean currents, or flooding of spawning areas or fish ponds; and food or export crop producers at risk from high winds. On the other hand, some of the short- to T he analysis in Chapters 3 and 9 suggests that, m edium -term negative impacts on food security independently of climate change, real world m arket agricultural prices will rem ain m ore or less constant may lead to positive outcomes in the longer term . or decline slightly over the projection period. For exam ple, increasing aridity may accelerate the m igration of low-wage agricultural workers to Climate change to 2030 may reduce the costs of crop and livestock production in some tem perate urban centres w here wages are higher and there is areas, according to IPCC projections (IPCC, m ore secure access to food markets. Increased frequency of extrem e events could 2001b), for exam ple, from m ilder winters, longer growing seasons and the reduced need for winter have substantial impacts on the economic perform concentrate feeds for livestock. In contrast, some ance of some countries and regions, and on transi hum id tropical and semi-arid areas of developing tory food insecurity. T he Mozambique floods of regions may face rising production costs, e.g. 2000, for exam ple, have been estim ated by the because of rice yield declines from higher night World Bank to have reduced economic growth by tem peratures, higher irrigation costs and saliniza 2 to 3 percentage points, and caused dam age in tion induced by sea level rise. excess of total export earnings. T he 1998 floods in China caused over US$100 billion dam age, and for T he net effect of these regional differences the main provinces affected, the dam age am ounted could be downward price pressures in developed to the equivalent of 3 to 4 percent of their GDP. countries and upw ard pressures on prices in devel Cam bodia suffered similar economic losses from oping countries, but in both cases the m ovements floods in 2000. In each case the num ber of people in real prices would be relatively small to 2030. considered to be transitory food insecure increased Parry et al. (1999) conclude that (other factors ten to 100-fold or more. However, their recovery rem aining equal) clim ate-induced cereal yield normally took place within m onths (FAO/GIEWS, declines could push up global prices in 2020 by 2000a) and the overall impact on national food about 5 percent (and by implication m uch m ore in parts of Africa), with substantially greater rises by

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2080. Cereals tend to be m ore sensitive to increased frequency and intensity of extrem e events. climate change than other food crops, and many It is im portant to bear in m ind that changes in developing countries are growing net im porters of international commodity prices estim ated by the cereals. Therefore they could become m ore vulner models used for climate change impact studies do able to clim ate-induced increases in grain prices. not necessarily relate closely to the food prices actu However, most studies suggest that in the short ally paid by consum ers and hence to the ability of term the net impact of climate change on current low-income groups to purchase their food needs. cereal areas is likely to be positive and in the longer For exam ple, bread is increasingly a purchased term the area suitable for cereal production could good rather than a hom e-baked food even for the expand considerably (IPCC, 2001c; Fischer et al., rural poor, and the cost of the cereal may be less 2001). Hence, even in the context of climate than 25 percent of the purchase price, with the change, world m arket prices for cereals are likely to rest com ing from processing, distribution and rem ain relatively stable. In addition, price develop m arketing costs (Norse, 1976). Hence, even if m ents may be partly offset through the im plem en climate change increases farmgate or international tation of present and future W TO Agreem ents on food prices over the next 30 years, this increase Agriculture. T he gap between international and may have a m uch smaller impact on consum er national prices should narrow, so that movements prices, and limited effects on the food security of in national prices should follow m ovements in those low-income groups that purchase most of world m arket prices m ore closely. National and their food from the retail sector. local prices, however, will still be perturbed by extrem e events and m ore direct international to domestic price links will m oderate these fluctua tion 13.5 Technology and policy options Tsebcuhtnnoo lo tgeilciaml ina ctheatnhgeem . and in frastructural Many of the actions required to mitigate or to im provem ents allowing better flows of food from adapt to climate change can also be justified in surplus to deficit areas could also offset some of the term s of present needs. Many do not require large pressure on national and local prices. Given the capital investments, and can be appropriate for slow progress of the last decades, however, there is poor smallholders as well as large farmers. They do great uncertainty w hether all of the required not have to be justified on the basis of the uncertain national and regional infrastructural im prove economic benefits of lowering some climate change m ents will take place over the next 30 years. In impacts. For exam ple, im proved water conserva south Mozambique, for exam ple, maize prices in tion would help to overcome current aridity as well the spring of 2000 increased rapidly because of as reduce the impact of any future deterioration in food shortages following the floods. At the same rainfall. Most of the actions would also contribute time, however, maize prices in north Mozambique to the wider objective of alleviating poverty and were about half those in the south and declining. im proving access to food rather than ju st safe Yet the high transport costs from the north to the guarding the production of food. south m ade it cheaper to im port maize from South Africa (FAO/GIEWS, 2000b). Extreme events affect food prices in character istic ways: price increases can be very rapid and large, particularly w here both household and T he priority actions to lower agriculture’s role as a com m ercial stocks are lost, and transp ort is driving force for climate change are clear from disrupted; price changes can be very localized, with Section 12.3.1 in C hapter 12: reduction of m ethane appreciable differences between urban and rural and nitrous oxide emissions from m ineral fertil areas with restricted access to outside supplies; and izers, m anure, livestock wastes and rice production. price increases can be short-lived, i.e. weeks rather T he w ider benefits are also clear, e.g. lower than months. These points show how critical general production costs through greater fertilizer-use effi economic developm ent will be in reducing the ciency and better waste recycling, and reduced air vulnerability of countries to climate change and to and water pollution. T he policy response options

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in the agrochemical sector include rem oving any supporting pastoral and other livestock produc subsidies on energy inputs and introducing carbon tion systems, many of which are already food taxes to prom ote energy-use efficiency in fertilizer insecure. Activities should be centred on m ain and pesticide production. taining livestock mobility and providing loca-O ther policy options include general actions to tion-specific investm ent in supplem entary feed prom ote sustainability through conservation agri pro duction, veterinary services and w ater culture, together with specific m easures such as supply (Sandford, 1995), and on im proving the en v iro n m en tal taxes on n itro g en fertilizers; m arketing of livestock during droughts and pro m otion of precision placem ent and b etter m aking it easier to restock after droughts or tim ing o f fertilizer and m an u re applications; floods; and develo p m en tof rice cultivars em itting less developing im proved sea defence and flood m ethane; adoption of direct seeding and better m anagem ent systems in sea level rise and storm w ater m anagem ent for rice to reduce m ethane surge situations, w here these are economically em issions; b e tte r feed quality for livestock; viable. im proved livestock waste m anagem ent; pro m o All these actions have the benefit of helping to tion of biofuel crops to replace fossil fuels; and am eliorate the impact of current climate variation expansion of agroforestry. as well as countering future adverse effects of climate change. Several actions need to be taken to mitigate and adapt to climate change. First, com prehensive T he IPCC now expresses high confidence in the support mechanisms m ust be form ulated to help projected increase in the frequency and intensity of farm ers adapt to climate change and to increase relatively localized extrem e events including those production under more variable conditions. Such associated with El Niño, notably droughts, floods, m echanisms could include approaches to crop tropical cyclones and hailstorms (IPCC, 2001b). pro d u ctio n which im prove the resilience of T he impacts of these increases will fall dispropor farm ing systems. tionately on the poor (see Box 13.1). Second, given the probability of higher inci All developing regions are considered by the dence of drought, aridity, salinity and extrem e IPCC to be vulnerable to increased droughts and events, greater priority will need to be given to the floods. These extrem e events could pose signifi following measures: cant threats to food security, requiring policy m aintenance, both onsite and offsite, of a broad action and investm ent both outside and within the genetic base for crops and developm ent and agricultural sector. distribution of m ore drought-tolerant crop vari For m any countries the key to reducing food eties and livestock breeds; insecurity will be better disaster preparedness breeding for greater tolerance of crops, live planning, although actions to lower the sensitivity stock and fish to higher tem peratures; of food and agricultural production to climate developm ent of salt-tolerant varieties of wheat, change will clearly be im portant to cope with the rice and oilcrops; longer-term impacts of climate change. Many of im proving the resilience of agricultural ecosys the actions in response to dro ught and sea level tems by prom oting NT/CA and practices such rise should be conceived on the pattern of disaster as agroforestry that utilize and m aintain biolog m anagem ent strategies being developed to reduce ical diversity; agricultural vulnerability to tropical storms (FAO, raising the efficiency of rainw ater use and 200 lg). T he objectives of such strategies include groundw ater recharge by conservation agricul avoiding or m inim izing death, injury, lack of ture, etc. and that of irrigation water by appro shelter and food shortages, loss of property or priate pricing policies, m anagem ent systems livelihoods of poor households, and preparing and technologies; funding and procedures for large-scale relief and

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rehabilitation. Such strategies may be im ple eventually level off, they will extend the time m ented through: available to introduce other m easures with longer-the developm ent of early warning and drought, term benefits. Thus, agriculture’s role as a driving flood- and storm -forecasting systems; force for climate change could still increase, but preparedness plans for relief and rehabilitation; its contribution to climate change mitigation will introducing m ore storm -resistant, dro ught-rise through greater carbon sequestration and tolerant and salt-tolerant crops; increased resilience to climate variation. land use systems that stabilize slopes and reduce T he main impacts of climate change on global the risk of soil erosion and mudslides; food production are not projected to occur until constructing livestock shelters and food stores after 2030, but thereafter they could become above likely flood levels; increasingly serious. Up to 2030 the impact may be equipping fishers with com m unication systems broadly neutral or even positive at the global level. and safety devices so that they can benefit from Food production in higher latitudes will generally early storm warnings, and credit systems so benefit from climate change, whereas it may suffer they can quickly replace any lost boats or equip in large areas of the tropics. However, there could ment. be large intraregional disparities in the m edium term , e.g. western, central and eastern Africa could experience a reduction in cereal production and 13.6 Conclusions southern Africa an increase. Up to 2030 these potential decreases in food T he projections of this study point to the likelihood production are relatively small and most countries of an appreciable increase in carbon sequestration should be able to com pensate for climate change by agricultural soils. A lthough the gains will im pacts by im proving agricultural practices. Box 13.1 Food-insecure regions and countries at risk

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Priority should be given to raising the resilience of N onetheless, low-incom e groups in m any agricultural ecosystems, increasing the cropped countries will rem ain vulnerable to short- to area, and raising and diversifying yields through m edium -term supply constraints arising from im proved access to genetic resources and technolo climate change. T he basic food security issue will gies. Moreover, with the exception of sub-Saharan rem ain that of poverty and the lack of food Africa, the growing income of developing countries purchasing power. should make it possible for m any of them to choose Although the impacts of climate change on food between greater food im ports and greater mitiga production and food security up to 2030 may be tion and adaptation by their agricultural sector to relatively small and uncertain, those projected for overcome climate change impacts. T he world's the rem ainder of the century are larger and m ore traditional cereal exporters should be able to m eet widespread. By 2100 climate change could pose a any increase in dem and, either because their serious threat to global and local food security. It is production potential will be boosted by climate therefore vital that action be taken now to counter change, or because they will have the capacity to this threat. Actions should include m easures to adapt to climate change and overcome any nega reduce agriculture’s role as a driving force for tive impacts. climate change, through the reduction of GHG Up to 2030, the most serious and widespread emissions, as well as m easures to mitigate and agricultural and food security problem s related to adapt to climate change. climate change are likely to arise from the impact Institutional changes are going to be as im por on climate variation, and not from progressive tant as or m ore im portant than technological ones. climate change, although the latter will be im por Institutional actions will be needed to raise national tant where it com pounds existing agroclimatic preparedness and reduce rural and urban poverty constraints. However, the m ore frequent extrem e to enable vulnerable low-incom e groups to events will not necessarily increase food insecurity purchase all of their basic food requirem ents. in all situations, given the other economic and Policies for agricultural developm ent will need to social changes taking place. Given the likely struc em phasize the im portance of im proving not ju st tural change in the sectoral composition of the the production capacity of agricultural ecosystems economy and of em ploym ent in developing coun but also their diversity and resilience. It is vitally tries, access to food will increasingly be determ ined im portant to initiate the institutional and techno by urbanization and non-agricultural incomes. As a logical changes now, because of the long lead times result, food security in some countries will improve for the developm ent of new technologies and for and they will become less vulnerable to climate the im provem ent of road and rail links between change. Developed countries will also experience food-deficit and surplus areas, and between ports m ore frequent extrem e events but it seems possible or railheads and isolated rural areas. that these will not have a sustained impact on their food export potential.

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Appendixes

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APPENDIX1 Countries and commodities

Developing countries

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APPENDIX2 Summary methodology of the quantitative analysis and projections

This appendix gives a very brief account of the specialists in the different disciplines. Such contri approach followed in this study. For a m ore exten butions can find expression only if the relevant sive treatm ent, the reader is referred to A ppendix questions are form ulated at a m eaningful level of 2 in A lexandratos (1995). T he final part of this detail. For exam ple, a useful contribution can only

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The database has one such SUA for each irrigated and rainfed land at the national level or commodity, country and year (1961 to 1999). T he by adm inistrative districts, supplem ented by a good data preparation work for the dem and-supply deal of guesstimates. analysis consists of the conversion of the approxi No data exist on total harvested land, but this m ately 330 com modities for which the prim ary can be obtained by sum m ing up the harvested production, utilization and trade data are available areas rep orted for the different crops. Data are into the 32 com m odities covered in this study, available for total arable land in agricultural use while respecting SUA identities (see the Note on (physical area, called in the statistics "arable land com m odities in A ppendix 1). The different and land in perm anent crops"). It is not known com m odities are aggregated into com m odity w hether these two sets o f data are com patible with groups and into “total agriculture” using as weights each other, but this can be evaluated indirectly by w orld average p ro ducer prices o f 1989/91 com puting th e ‘cropping intensity, i.e. the ratio of expressed in “international dollars” derived from harvested area to arable land. This is an im portant the Geary-Khamis form ula as explained in Rao param eter that can signal defects in the land use (1993). The grow th rates for h eterogen eous data. Indeed, for several countries the implicit com m odity groups or total agriculture shown in values of the cropping intensities did not seem to this study are com puted from the value aggregates thus obtained. m ake sense. In such cases the harvested area data resulting from the crop statistics were accepted as A m ajor p art of the data preparation work, being the m ore robust (or the less questionable) undertak en only for the developing countries, is ones and those for arable area were adjusted in the unfolding of the SUA elem ent “production” consultation with the country and land use special (for the base year only, in this case the three-year ists (see Alexandratos [1995] for a discussion of average 1997/99) into its constituent com ponents these problems). of area, yield and production that are required for T he bulk of the projection work concerns the projecting production. For crops, the standard drawing up of SUAs (by com modity and country) data in the SUAs contain, for most crops, also the for the years 2015 and 2030, and the unfolding of areas (harvested) and average yields for each crop the projected SUA item “production” into area and and country. These national averages are not yield com binations for rainfed and irrigated land considered by agronom ists to provide a good and, likewise, for livestock com modities into the enough basis for projections because of the widely underlying param eters (num ber of animals, offtake differing agro-ecological conditions in which any rates and yields). single crop is grown, even within the same country. T he overall approach is to start with projections An attem pt was therefore m ade to break down the of dem and, using Engel dem and functions and base year production data from fiotal area und er a exogenous assum ptions on population and GDP crop and an average yield into areas and yields for grow th.1 Subsequently, the entry point for the rainfed and irrigated categories. T he problem is projections of production is to start with provi that such detailed data are not generally available sional projections for p ro d u ctio n for each in any standard database. It becam e necessary to com m odity and country derived from sim ple piece them together from fragm entary inform a assum ptions about future self-sufficiency and trade tion, from both published and unpublished docu levels. T here follow several rounds of iterations m ents giving, for exam ple, areas and yields by and adjustm ents in consultation with specialists on

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the different countries and disciplines, with partic approaches followed for estim ating the num ber of ular reference to what are considered to be “accept chronically undernourished people (Box 2.1), for able” or “feasible” levels of calorie intakes, diet deriving estimates of land with potential for rainfed com position, land use, (crop and livestock) yields and trade. Accounting consistency controls at the agriculture (Box 4.1), for estim ating water req uire m ents in irrigated agriculture (Box 4.3), and for commodity, land resources (developing countries deriving projections of fertilizer consum ption only), country an d w orld levels have to be (Section 4.6). respected throughout. In addition, but only for the cereal, livestock and oilseeds sectors, a formal flex-price m odel was used (FAO World Food Model; FAO, 1993b) to provide starting levels for the iter ations and to keep track of the implications for all T he significant com m odity and country detail variables of the changes in any one variable intro underlying the analysis requires the handling of duced in the successive rounds of inspection and huge quantities of data. Inevitably, data problem s adjustm ent. T he m odel is a partial equilibrium that would rem ain hidden and go unnoticed in m odel, com posed of single com modity m odules work conducted at the level of large country and and world m arket feedbacks leading to national com modity aggregates come to the fore all the and world m arket clearing through price adjust time. Examples of typical data problem s are given below. ments. It is em phasized that the results of the m odel projections (w hether the single Engel dem and functions or the flex-price model) were W hen revised num bers become

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attempts to compare in any degree of detail the countries may face extraordinary events leading to projections of earlier editions of this study with the their being worse off in the future than at present actual outcomes for the latest year for which data is mentioned. In Chapter 2 it was noted that are available. The comparisons occasionally shown several countries suffered declining levels of food in Chapters 3 and 4 are for the developing coun consumption, some of them in the form of collapses tries as a whole: net cereal imports (Figure 3.7) and within the span of a few years, e.g. the Democratic production and yields of wheat, rice, maize and People’s Republic of Korea, Iraq, Cuba, Afghanistan, other coarse grains (Figure 3.12 and Box 4.4). As the Democratic Republic of the Congo and many such, they are not greatly influenced by significant transition economies. In most cases such collapses revisions in the historical data o f individual result from the occurrence of difficult to predict countries. systemic changes or crises, or from outright unpre dictable events, such as war or civil strife. It is A second data problem impossible to predict which countries may be in relates to the large discrepancies often encountered that class in the future. Therefore, in the projec in the trade statistics, i.e. world imports are not tions each and every country is shown with a equal to world exports. Small discrepancies are higher food consumption per person than at inevitable and can be ignored but large ones pose present, some significantly better, others less so and serious problems since in the projections exporting several remaining with critically low levels. This is countries must produce export surpluses equal to the result, in the first place, of the exogenous the net imports of other countries. For example, income growth assumptions that allow only rarely the sugar exporters had net exports of 32.3 million for the eventuality that per capita income of indi tonnes in 1997/99 while importers had net imports vidual countries might in 30 years be lower than at of only 28.5 million tonnes, leaving a world imbal present. ance of 3.7 million tonnes. In the projections, the The prospect that only few countries may suffer importers are estimated to need net imports of income declines is, of course, at variance with the 35.2 million tonnes in 2015, an increase of empirical evidence that shows quite a few countries 23 percent. If the discrepancy in the base year having lower incomes today than three decades were to be ignored, the export surplus of the ago. The World Bank has data for 80 of the devel exporters should also be 35.2 million tonnes, oping countries covered individually in this study i.e. only 9 percent above the 32.5 million they (World Bank, 2001b; Table 1.4). No fewer than exported in 1997/99, thus greatly distorting the 28 of them have had negative growth rates in per analysis of their export prospects. By necessity, the capita GDP in the period 1965-99 (the number is unsatisfactory solution of assuming that a discrep larger if the transition economies are included). ancy of roughly equal magnitude to that of the base They include many of the countries devastated by year will also prevail in the future had to be war or civil strife at some period from 1965 to adopted (see Table 3.23, Chapter^3). 1999. As noted, it would be foolhardy to predict or There are good reasons why discrepancies arise assume which countries may have similar experi in the trade statistics, e.g. differences in the timing ences in the future. For example, in the 1988 o f recording ofm ovem ent o f goods in the edition of this study (Alexandratos, 1988) with exporting and importing country, although this projections to 2000, the collapse of food and agri can hardly explain some very large discrepancies, culture in the formerly centrally planned e.g. world exports of refined sugar are 20 percent economies of Europe and their virtual disappear higher than world imports, while for concentrated ance as large net importers of cereals had not been orange juice world exports (85 percent of them predicted. from Brazil) are double world imports. At the same time, world imports of single strength orange juice In this study, only one exceed world exports by an almost equal amount. possible outcome for the future based on a positive, rather than normative, assessment is presented. As Alternative scenarios have not been explored for a an example, the impossibility of foreseeing which number of reasons, some conceptual, some practical,

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and usually a mix of both. Producing an alternative itself. To introduce such general equilibrium scenario is essentially a remake of the projections elem ents in the analysis, rather sophisticated with a different set of assumptions. On the practical economy-wide models would have to be built and side, the major constraint is the time-consuming validated for the individual countries. This is a nature of estimating alternative scenarios with the quasi impossible task, partly because of the time methodology of expert-based inspection, evaluation and resources required and partly because the data and iterative adjustments of the projections. On the available for many of the countries for which such conceptual side, defining an alternative set of exoge analyses would be most appropriate (low-income nous assumptions that are internally consistent ones with high dependence on agriculture) are represents a challenge of no easy resolution. For generally not adequate to support such an under example, among the major exogenous variables are taking. Circumventing the problem by assuming the projections of population and income (GDP). As arbitrarily the existence of linkages between agri discussed, for population the medium variant demo culture and the rest of the economy (e.g. that a graphic projections of the United Nations were used. 1 percent increase in agricultural GDP causes the There are also high and low variants. In estimating rest of the economy to grow by x percent) would an alternative scenario with, say, the high variant, it not do. As noted above, in a number of countries would not be known how the exogenous GDP robust agricultural growth was associated with projections should be modified so as to be internally meagre or declining growth for the rest of the consistent with the high population variant. If the economy, implying a negative link if this simplistic GDP growth rates were retained unchanged, approach were followed. Obviously, rather sophis projected per capita incomes would be lower, and ticated economy-wide analysis would reveal the this would mean implicitly accepting that population reasons why such “perverse” relationships exist in growth is detrimental to economic welfare. If the the data, and could even lead to the conclusion that GDP growth rates were raised to keep projected per some of the data are outright wrong. capita incomes unchanged, it would mean accepting In conclusion, alternative scenarios would be that population growth made no difference. Neither certainly useful for exploring the future in the face of the two views can be correct for all countries. In of uncertainties about how key variables of the actual life, some countries would be better off with system may evolve. In this study, an attempt was higher population growth and some worse off (see made to contain this uncertainty by bringing to more discussion in Box 2.3, Chapter 2). It would be bear the expert judgem ent of the discipline and impossible to define in an empirically valid manner country specialists on the future values of the rele what the relationships could be for each of the more vant variables (e.g. rates of growth of yields, land, than one hundred countries analysedfindividually in irrigation, etc.). Running a scenario with alterna this study. tive values for one or more of these variables would The one alternative scenario that it would be mean repeating this process. Much of the work for highly desirable to have is one that would intro a new scenario would be devoted to the definition duce feedbacks from agriculture to the overall of plausible alternative values. It is just not a ques economy, at least for the countries in which agri tion of assuming that, for example, irrigation culture is a substantial component of the economy. would expand at a higher rate than in the baseline The methodology used in this study is of the partial projection in each and every country. This would equilibrium type, that is, interdependence is be impossible for some countries because of accounted for among, and balance is brought about physical water constraints. The same holds for in, the demand and supply of the individual agri higher yield growth rates: the potential exists in cultural commodities, at the country and world some countries and crops but not in others. If real levels. Other aspects of interdependence and istic alternative paths for such values cannot be balance in the wider economy are ignored, e.g. defined, the results o f estimating alternative how a more robust agricultural performance would scenarios with blanket assumptions about uniform eventually contribute to a higher GDP growth rate changes in the values of some variables in each and than originally assumed and how the latter would every country would certainly be misleading rather in turn stimulate demand for food and agriculture than illuminating.

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APPENDIX3 Statistical tables

Table A1 Total population Table A2 Per capita food supplies for direct human consumption Table A3 Cereal sector data Table A4.1 Wheat: area, yield and production

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Acronyms

ACP African, Caribbean and Pacific EDI electronic data interchange Group of States EEZ exclusive economic zone AEZ agro-ecological zones EIA environmental impact assessment AI artificial insemination EPA Environmental Protection Agency AMS aggregate m easurem ent of support (USA)

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ICA International Coffee Agreement MEA multilateral environmental ICP international commodity prices agreem ent IDG International Development Goal MRA mutual recognition agreem ent IFA International Fertilizer Industry MSY maximum sustainable yield Association NAFTA North American Free Trade IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Agreement Development NFIDC Net Food-Importing Developing IFDC International Fertilizer Development Countries Centre NGO non-governmental organization IFF Intergovernm ental Forum on NIC newly industrializing countries Forests NTB non-tariff barrier IFPRI International Food Policy Research NT/CA no-till/conservation agriculture Institute NWFP non-wood forest product IIASA International Institute for Applied OECD Organization for Economic Systems Analysis Co-operation and Development I IT intra-industry trade OIE International Office of Epizootics IITA International Institute of Tropical PFI prevalence of food inadequacy Agriculture PGRFA Plant Genetic Resources for Food ILO International Labour Office and Agriculture IP intellectual property PPP purchasing power parity IPCC Intergovernm ental Panel on Climate PSE producer support estimate Change PTA preferential trade agreem ent IPF Ad hoc Intergovernm ental Panel on PTO Patent and Tradem ark Office Forests RCM regional climate model I PM integrated pest management REPA regional economic partnership IPNS Integrated Plant N utrient Systems agreem ent IPPC International Plant Protection RFMB Regional Fishery Management Body Convention RNF rural non-farm I PPM integrated production and pest RTA regional trade agreements m anagement RWEDP Regional Wood Energy Development I PR intellectual property rights Programme IRRI International Rice Research Institute RWR renewable water resources ISI import-substituting industrialization SARD sustainable agriculture and rural ITC International Trade Centre development IUCN International Union for the SD standard deviation Conservation of Nature and Natural SDT special and differential treatm ent Resources (World Conservation SFM sustainable forest management Union) SIT sterile insect technique Kcal kilocalorie SMW Soil Map of the World LDC least developed countries SOM soil organic matter LEISA low external input sustainable SPS sanitary and phytosanitary agriculture (measures) GP length of growing period SSG special agricultural safeguard ID Livestock in Development SSR self-sufficiency rate LMO living modified organism SUA supply utilization account MAS marker-assisted selection TBT technical barriers to trade MCFY maximum constraint-free yield TFP total factor productivity MDG Millennium Development Goal TNCs transnational corporations

World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030

ABSTRACT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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